GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST: HOW SUDAN’S CHANGING REGIONAL CONTEXT FUELS CONFLICT AND HINDERS MEDIATION

The paper analyzes the civil war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), arguing that the conflict has become a proxy war for Middle Eastern powers. It details how external military support from countries like the UAE, Egypt, and Iran sustains the fighting and how a proliferation of uncoordinated, ad hoc mediation initiatives—often led by these same regional actors—has marginalized civilian political actors and hindered a comprehensive peace agreement.

• The civil war in Sudan is characterized as a proxy war where Middle Eastern powers compete for influence, with the UAE supporting the RSF and Egypt, Turkey, and Iran supporting the SAF.
• External military assistance is a critical prerequisite for the ongoing conflict; the UAE provided the RSF with an independent power base, while Iran and Egypt prevented the SAF from being defeated.
• The conflict has resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, with 11 million internally displaced persons, 3 million refugees, and an estimated death toll of up to 150,000 people nationwide.
• Traditional African-led mediation by the African Union (AU) and the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has been marginalized and hindered by perceived bias and a lack of coordination.
• Mediation has shifted toward ad hoc, transactional initiatives led by Middle Eastern actors, which often prioritize short-term ceasefires over deep political reform or the transition to civilian rule.
• The proliferation of overlapping mediation platforms has enabled 'forum shopping' by Sudanese actors, further weakening the influence of African institutions and civilian democratic forces.
• A recent Turkish initiative aims to address the regional dimension by attempting to convince the UAE to stop supporting the RSF in exchange for Sudan withdrawing complaints against the UAE at the UN Security Council.

APA

Rolandsen, Ø. H., & Bel, A. S. (2025). GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST: HOW SUDAN’S CHANGING REGIONAL CONTEXT FUELS CONFLICT AND HINDERS MEDIATION. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f4d1b87d-ff33-4255-abaf-cfbd17f4d284/Rolandsen and Sastre Bel GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST May 2025.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rolandsen, Øystein H., and Antoni Sastre Bel. GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST: HOW SUDAN’S CHANGING REGIONAL CONTEXT FUELS CONFLICT AND HINDERS MEDIATION. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2025. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f4d1b87d-ff33-4255-abaf-cfbd17f4d284/Rolandsen and Sastre Bel GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST May 2025.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rolandsen |first1=Øystein H. |last2=Bel |first2=Antoni Sastre |title=GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST: HOW SUDAN’S CHANGING REGIONAL CONTEXT FUELS CONFLICT AND HINDERS MEDIATION |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=May 2025 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f4d1b87d-ff33-4255-abaf-cfbd17f4d284/Rolandsen and Sastre Bel GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST May 2025.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rolandsen2025gravitating, author = {Rolandsen, Øystein H. and Bel, Antoni Sastre}, title = {{GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST: HOW SUDAN’S CHANGING REGIONAL CONTEXT FUELS CONFLICT AND HINDERS MEDIATION}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f4d1b87d-ff33-4255-abaf-cfbd17f4d284/Rolandsen and Sastre Bel GRAVITATING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST May 2025.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }