Search Climate Insights Directory

The study examines the vulnerability of Arabica coffee in Bududa, Uganda, to climate variability and projected climate change. It finds that yields have declined due to poor management and extreme weather, including droughts and landslides. The report argues that transitioning from 'Business as Usual' (BAU) to Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)—defined here as planting shade trees, mulching, and trench construction—significantly improves the internal rate of return (IRR) for farmers, even under future climate scenarios. While costly, the study concludes that a combined programme of CSA and institutional support is economically justified, with a projected IRR of around 36%.

The report details a USAID-funded project led by the Stockholm Environment Institute to integrate climate change considerations into Colombian water management. By deploying the WEAP modeling system and a participatory RDS process in the Otún, La Vieja, and Alto Magdalena watersheds, the program built technical capacity within regional environmental authorities (CARs) and academic institutions. Key findings include the critical role of páramo ecosystems in maintaining dry-season baseflows and the potential for hydropower development to disrupt downstream wetland dynamics in the Magdalena-Cauca basin. The project emphasizes moving from 'conscious incompetence' to 'conscious competence' in climate adaptation planning through institutional capacity building and the creation of a professional community of practice.

The study identifies a positive association between dengue fever occurrence in the Belize District and both precipitation and minimum temperature. Projections for the 2050s suggest a general warming trend with an increase in the frequency of days where minimum temperatures exceed 18°C, which may increase DF occurrence. Conversely, a projected increase in days where maximum temperatures exceed 32°C may create less favourable conditions for the disease. The report emphasizes that non-climate factors, including changes in health reporting structures and socio-economic drivers, also influence DF trends.

The study utilizes integrated basin-scale models to analyze the water-energy-climate nexus in Sacramento, California. It finds that hot dry years, characterized by a 4C temperature increase and 25% precipitation decrease, would lead to a more than 35% increase in regional electricity imports due to constrained local power production.

The study examines how climate variability affects freshwater fish fry production in 15 government hatcheries in Northern Thailand, identifying key constraints and proposing resilience strategies.

The report addresses the critical shortage of local climate data in fragile states, where conflict and weak governance often destroy meteorological infrastructure. It categorizes climate information into historical, current, and prospective data, and provides a directory of satellite-based alternatives and international forecasting centers. The document argues that integrating these data into different humanitarian planning horizons—from immediate relief to long-term strategic planning—is essential for sustainable peacebuilding. It concludes by outlining priorities for rebuilding national meteorological services, using examples from Haiti and Sierra Leone.

The briefing examines the correlation between climate and political violence, noting that while conflicts cluster in dry and tropical zones, there is little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, the authors argue that climate change may increase conflict risk indirectly through three primary causal mechanisms: forced migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks. These effects are not universal but depend on 'scope conditions' such as poverty, poor governance, and political instability. The document concludes that the security challenges posed by climate change are essentially development challenges, and that investing in adaptation and good governance is critical to preventing a growing gap between stable, wealthy societies and those caught in a poverty and instability trap.

The document argues that large-scale hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change, yet planning typically relies on historical data and ignores future projections. It identifies barriers to the adoption of climate services—including short planning horizons, institutional gaps, and the influence of Chinese financing—and recommends adopting flexible designs and catchment-wide planning based on downscaled climate models.

The document reports on a pilot study investigating how climate information is integrated into Rwandan policy. It finds that while current policies address immediate climate variability, there is a significant gap in the use of quantitative long-term projections. The study identifies land use and green city planning as high-potential areas for such data, while noting that barriers include a lack of technical capacity, short decision windows, and a tendency to omit model uncertainty in favor of qualitative narratives.

The document examines Namibia's transition from a period of rampant overfishing by foreign fleets to a state-led governance model. It highlights the success in reducing illegal fishing and the implementation of 'Namibianisation' policies to promote local ownership and processing. However, it notes significant challenges, including the failure of sardine stocks to recover due to an ecosystem regime shift, the 'boom and bust' nature of deep-sea fisheries like orange roughy, and the prevalence of 'fronting' where foreign companies maintain control through proxy ownership. The paper argues that strong political leadership and effective rent capture mechanisms are essential for sustainable fisheries management in Africa.

The document argues that traditional food security monitoring focuses too heavily on outputs and outcomes, which are often difficult to attribute to specific actions. It proposes 'process-based indicators' as proxies to measure the quality of decision-making, institutional capacity, and inclusivity. Using the FIPAT tool in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, the authors identify key indicators across six areas: policy vulnerability, system resilience, decision-making transparency, multistakeholder participation, lessons learned, and decentralization. The briefing emphasizes that effective food security policies require inclusive participation of vulnerable groups, empowered local decision-makers, and a shift in institutional culture to view policy review as a dynamic, non-punitive process.

The document investigates the factors influencing the use of seasonal forecast information (SFI) among farmers in Bundelkhand, India. It identifies that the effective use of SFI depends on a knowledge-action system comprising dissemination, demand, acceptance, understanding, and action capacity. The study finds that dissemination, salience, and action capacity are significantly associated with whether farmers utilize monsoon forecast information, suggesting these areas must be improved to increase usage.

The report examines the intersection of climate variability and development in Ethiopia, specifically focusing on how farmers and pastoralists are affected by drought and floods. It draws on research conducted by Haramaya University and government officials in the Oromiya, Afar, and Amhara Regional States to argue that climate adaptation efforts must be aligned with broader development plans to be effective.

The document highlights the vulnerability of Uganda's agriculture-dependent economy to rainfall fluctuations and the challenges of obtaining accurate meteorological data due to infrastructure gaps and conflict. It focuses on climate trends and projections in Bundibugyo, Gulu, and Kotido to inform policy-makers on increasing the adaptive capacity of rural livelihoods.

The study examined 43 smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe's Mhakwe Communal Area to understand their perceptions of climate change and their adaptation methods. It found that while farmers receive information from government and non-governmental organisations, they rely on specific practical strategies like zero tillage and agroforestry. The authors recommend that external agencies strengthen these existing strategies and improve the dissemination of analysed weather and climate data.

The study finds that soil and water conservation (SWC) and small reservoir expansion increased significantly in northern Burkina Faso, particularly in regions receiving 700 mm of rainfall or less. While regional cereal yields rose by approximately 3% per year, and rice productivity showed a strong correlation with reservoir expansion, the causal links to poverty reduction and food security are less clear due to data limitations. The report suggests that AWM adoption is one of many factors contributing to livelihood improvements and requires further long-term analysis to establish definitive causality.

The report examines the vulnerability of Kenya's private sector to climate change, specifically highlighting risks to hydropower, agriculture, and tourism. It evaluates fifteen risk assessment tools based on cost, complexity, and applicability, recommending four specific frameworks for Kenyan businesses. The document also identifies gaps in private sector adaptation, such as lack of specific geographic data and cost-benefit information, and suggests the development of a Kenyan-specific climate risk assessment tool.

The paper uses the Sesheke district in Western Zambia as a case study to analyze how climate variability affects the livelihoods of men and women dependent on natural resources. It evaluates the extent to which gender considerations were integrated into the formulation of agriculture and environmental policies and assesses the practical implementation of these policies, focusing on whether government funding for local adaptation activities is gender-responsive in its allocation and disbursement.

The study finds that current climate variability already costs Nepal 1.5–2% of its annual GDP, with future climate change projected to add another 2–3% of current GDP per year by mid-century. The most significant drivers of these costs are water-induced disasters, particularly floods. Sectoral analysis indicates that while agriculture faces net losses of approximately 0.8% of current GDP per year by the 2070s, the hydroelectricity sector faces high uncertainty, with projections ranging from increased investment costs of US$2.6 billion due to decreased dry season flows to potential savings of US$170 million if flows increase. To address these risks, the study recommends an iterative adaptation pathway, estimating a need for US$2.4 billion in additional investment by 2030 to mainstream resilience.

The study finds that current climate variability already costs Nepal 1.5–2% of its annual GDP, with future climate change projected to add another 2–3% of current GDP per year by mid-century. Key risks include significant agricultural losses in the Terai region, highly uncertain impacts on hydroelectricity investment costs depending on river flow projections, and a 20–100% increase in the intensity and frequency of high river flows. To address these, the report recommends an iterative adaptation pathway, estimating a need for US$2.4 billion in additional investment by 2030 to mainstream resilience.