A Climate of Conflicts?

The briefing examines the correlation between climate and political violence, noting that while conflicts cluster in dry and tropical zones, there is little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, the authors argue that climate change may increase conflict risk indirectly through three primary causal mechanisms: forced migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks. These effects are not universal but depend on 'scope conditions' such as poverty, poor governance, and political instability. The document concludes that the security challenges posed by climate change are essentially development challenges, and that investing in adaptation and good governance is critical to preventing a growing gap between stable, wealthy societies and those caught in a poverty and instability trap.

• There is a strong geographic correlation between climate and political violence, with civil conflict rates being significantly higher in warm and dry regions compared to cooler, continental zones.
• Current scientific research indicates that short-term climatic variability has a minimal impact on the occurrence of state-based violent conflict.
• Climate change may act as a 'threat multiplier' by triggering indirect causal pathways to conflict, specifically through rural-urban migration, food insecurity, and broader economic shocks.
• Climate-driven migration can increase conflict risk by creating competition for scarce resources, fueling intercommunal tensions between migrants and host populations, or causing mistrust between origin and receiving states.
• Food insecurity, often exacerbated by extreme weather in exporting countries, can lead to social turmoil and mobilization for protest, particularly in countries with poor governance and high dependence on food imports.
• Climatic shocks can destabilize states by reducing revenues, increasing external debt, and diverting funds from social programs, which in turn lowers the opportunity cost for individuals to join rebellions.
• The impact of climate change on conflict is not deterministic; it depends on 'scope conditions' such as political stability, poverty, and the state's capacity to provide relief and adaptation.
• Addressing the security risks of climate change requires focusing on development policies, including good governance, sustainable economic growth, and equitable access to health and education.

APA

Buhaug, H., & Rudolfsen, I. (2015). A Climate of Conflicts? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Buhaug, Halvard, and Ida Rudolfsen. A Climate of Conflicts? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2015. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Buhaug |first1=Halvard |last2=Rudolfsen |first2=Ida |title=A Climate of Conflicts? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=May 2015 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{buhaug2015climate, author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Rudolfsen, Ida}, title = {{A Climate of Conflicts?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2015}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }