buhaug-rudolfsen---a-climate-of-conflicts-conflict-trends-05-2015-419f20105a2e434a.pdf

This briefing from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) examines the relationship between climate and armed conflict. While civil conflict is statistically more frequent in dry and tropical climates, the authors find little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, they argue that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that can increase conflict risk indirectly through migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks, particularly in societies already characterized by poor governance and poverty.

• There is a strong statistical correlation between climate zones and the occurrence of civil conflict, with risk being seven to ten times higher in dry and tropical climates compared to continental climate zones. However, the reasons for this clustering are not fully understood and may be linked to other risk factors like poverty and poor governance.
• Current scientific research suggests that short-term climatic variability plays only a marginal role in causing state-based violent conflict. The authors note that most academic literature focuses on short-term variability rather than gradual, long-term climate change, making it difficult to isolate the causal contribution of the latter.
• Climate change may increase conflict risk through three primary indirect causal mechanisms: migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks. These mechanisms do not have a universal effect but depend on 'scope conditions' such as existing political instability, inequality, and dependence on rain-fed agriculture.
• Climate-driven migration can lead to conflict by increasing competition for scarce resources like land and jobs, or by creating intercommunal tensions when migrants differ ethnically or culturally from host populations. Conversely, urban migration can act as a 'societal safety valve' by relieving environmental pressures in rural areas.
• Food insecurity, often exacerbated by droughts and heat waves in exporting countries, can trigger social turmoil and protests. This is particularly acute in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, where a lack of modern equipment and political instability impede food production.
• Economic shocks resulting from extreme weather or sea-level rise can reduce state revenues, increase external debt, and divert funding from social programs. Such economic instability is a powerful correlate of civil conflict, as it lowers the opportunity cost for individuals to join rebellions.
• The state's response to climatic shocks is more critical in determining conflict likelihood than the magnitude of the event itself. While biased relief efforts can exacerbate societal cleavages, disasters can occasionally create opportunities for peace, as seen with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2005 peace agreement in Aceh.
• The authors conclude that security challenges associated with climate change are primarily development challenges. Investing in good governance, sustainable economic development, and climate adaptation is essential to prevent a growing gap between stable, wealthy societies and those caught in a 'poverty and instability trap'.

APA

Peace Research Institute Oslo (n.d.). buhaug-rudolfsen---a-climate-of-conflicts-conflict-trends-05-2015-419f20105a2e434a.pdf. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Peace Research Institute Oslo. buhaug-rudolfsen---a-climate-of-conflicts-conflict-trends-05-2015-419f20105a2e434a.pdf. n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Peace Research Institute Oslo |title=buhaug-rudolfsen---a-climate-of-conflicts-conflict-trends-05-2015-419f20105a2e434a.pdf |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{peaceresearchinstituteoslondbuhaugrudolfsenaclimateofconflictsconflicttrends052015419f20105a2e434apdf, author = {{Peace Research Institute Oslo}}, title = {{buhaug-rudolfsen---a-climate-of-conflicts-conflict-trends-05-2015-419f20105a2e434a.pdf}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c124c57b-bd08-48df-b659-88b8d7c430cf/Buhaug Rudolfsen - A Climate of Conflicts Conflict Trends 05-2015.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }