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  • This briefing from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) examines the relationship between climate and armed conflict. While civil conflict is statistically more frequent in dry and tropical climates, the authors find little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, they argue that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that can increase conflict risk indirectly through migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks, particularly in societies already characterized by poor governance and poverty.

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    Themes: climate changeclimate variabilityextreme weathersea-level risedroughts
    Peace Research Institute Oslo

    Document type: Briefing

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