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The briefing establishes that fossil fuels are responsible for approximately 70% of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution, with a small number of companies contributing a disproportionate share. It highlights the role of attribution science in linking specific extreme weather events to climate change and details the growing trend of using the 'polluter pays' principle in litigation and legislation to hold these companies financially accountable. The document further argues that to meet the 1.5C target, global fossil fuel production must decrease significantly by 2030, supported by a transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles.

The report demonstrates a causal link between Amazonian deforestation and reduced hydroelectric output in Brazil, affecting plants both within the Amazon and in distant regions like the Paraná Basin. Through case studies of the Teles Pires and several Paraná Basin plants, it quantifies energy and financial losses, highlighting that 17 of Brazil's 20 largest hydroelectric plants are exposed to the 'flying rivers' mechanism. The document argues that forest conservation is essential for national energy security and suggests targeted restoration policies based on land tenure categories.

Climate change is intensifying wildfires in the United States by raising temperatures and drying out forests, while a century of fire suppression has increased fuel loads. These fires cause significant loss of life, property destruction, and high federal costs, while simultaneously releasing greenhouse gases that further accelerate global warming.

The study finds that public transport in its current North American configuration increases nitrogen oxide levels and does not significantly improve local air quality.

The paper pilots the use of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to understand why some research projects achieve policy uptake while others do not. Analyzing 20 completed projects, the study identifies three causal pathways to success, with research credibility emerging as a necessary 'gatekeeper' condition. The authors conclude that while QCA is a resource-intensive method that reduces causal complexity, it is a valuable tool for challenging and refining a Theory of Change in complex international development settings.

The briefing examines the correlation between climate and political violence, noting that while conflicts cluster in dry and tropical zones, there is little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, the authors argue that climate change may increase conflict risk indirectly through three primary causal mechanisms: forced migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks. These effects are not universal but depend on 'scope conditions' such as poverty, poor governance, and political instability. The document concludes that the security challenges posed by climate change are essentially development challenges, and that investing in adaptation and good governance is critical to preventing a growing gap between stable, wealthy societies and those caught in a poverty and instability trap.

The document argues that large-scale commercial agriculture and timber enterprises, rather than subsistence farming, are the leading drivers of tropical deforestation. It highlights the role of cattle ranching in the Amazon, palm oil plantations in Southeast Asia, and the global demand for timber and paper. The text emphasizes that tropical deforestation accounts for approximately 15 percent of global warming pollution due to the release of carbon stored in trees. It cites the Brazilian soybean moratorium as a successful example of how industry can grow without further forest clearing through societal pressure and improved land-use practices.

The Hindu Kush-Himalayan-Tibetan (HKHT) region is warming twice as fast as the global average, with temperatures increasing by 1.2 °C over the last 120 years. This warming, driven by CO2 and black carbon (BC), is causing widespread glacier retreat and a weakening of the South Asian monsoon system. Black carbon, a byproduct of incomplete combustion from fossil fuels and biomass, reduces snow albedo and heats the lower atmosphere via Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs), potentially playing a role as significant as CO2 in melting Himalayan glaciers. These changes threaten water security for millions, including 500 million people in the Ganges River Basin, and increase the frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

The paper analyzes the drivers of per capita CO2 emissions across U.S. states, noting a wide range from 76.5 mT in Alaska to 12.2 mT in Vermont. It identifies that high transportation emissions are linked to sparse populations, low gasoline prices, and limited public transit. High residential heating emissions are associated with cold climates, high average incomes, and the use of oil for heating. Additionally, high residential electricity emissions are driven by coal-based power generation, hot and humid climates, and low electricity prices. The authors highlight gasoline prices, electricity prices, and public transportation use as key policy variables.

The document discusses how shifting rainfall patterns and rising carbon dioxide levels are increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, leading to significant economic losses and threats to global food security. It attributes 90 percent of global warming to human activity and advocates for the deployment of emissions-reduction technologies and climate adaptation measures to minimize future risks.

Inland flooding in the United States is driven by a combination of climate-induced increases in heavy rainfall and land-use practices that reduce the landscape's ability to absorb water. Rising global temperatures increase evaporation and the atmosphere's capacity to hold water vapor, leading to more frequent and heavier precipitation. Additionally, the destruction of natural areas, development in floodplains, and the creation of impermeable surfaces like asphalt exacerbate flood risks.