Dengue Fever in the Belize District

The study identifies a positive association between dengue fever occurrence in the Belize District and both precipitation and minimum temperature. Projections for the 2050s suggest a general warming trend with an increase in the frequency of days where minimum temperatures exceed 18°C, which may increase DF occurrence. Conversely, a projected increase in days where maximum temperatures exceed 32°C may create less favourable conditions for the disease. The report emphasizes that non-climate factors, including changes in health reporting structures and socio-economic drivers, also influence DF trends.

• Statistical analysis of data from 2007-2014 indicates that rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) are major factors contributing to dengue fever (DF) in the Belize District, showing positive associations during the Sept-Nov and Dec-Feb periods.
• Dengue fever occurrence is most prevalent in urban areas of the Belize District, with the highest rates per 100 people found in Belize City, followed by San Pedro Town on Ambergris Caye.
• Climate projections for the 2050s indicate a general warming trend, with an expected increase in both maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures across all months.
• In the 2050s, the number of days where Tmin exceeds 18°C is projected to increase considerably, particularly from January to March and November to December, which may lead to increased DF occurrence.
• Projections for the 2050s show a decrease in the number of days where Tmax is between 20°C and 32°C, primarily because there is a major increase in days exceeding 32°C, which is associated with a decline in DF incidence.
• Precipitation patterns in the 2050s are projected to change, with a decrease in mean wet-day precipitation from May to September and an increase in heavy rainfall and variability during October and November.
• Observed increases in DF may be influenced by non-climate factors, such as population growth, socio-economic drivers, and significant changes in how the Ministry of Health classified and reported DF cases between 2007 and 2014.

APA

Ruiz, D., Goodess, C., & Joslyn, O. (2015). Dengue Fever in the Belize District. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf

Chicago

Ruiz, Diana, Clare Goodess, and Ottis Joslyn. Dengue Fever in the Belize District. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ruiz |first1=Diana |last2=Goodess |first2=Clare |last3=Joslyn |first3=Ottis |title=Dengue Fever in the Belize District |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=10 August 2015 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ruiz2015dengue, author = {Ruiz, Diana and Goodess, Clare and Joslyn, Ottis}, title = {{Dengue Fever in the Belize District}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = aug, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }