Dengue Fever in the Belize District

This case study analyzes the relationship between climate variables and dengue fever (DF) in the Belize District. Using historical data (2007-2014) and the CARIWIG weather generator, the study finds that rainfall and minimum temperatures are positively associated with DF occurrence. Projections for the 2050s indicate overall warming and a shift in precipitation patterns, including decreased rainfall from May to September and increased heavy rainfall in October and November. The report suggests that while some warming trends might reduce DF transmission, the increase in minimum temperatures and heavy rainfall events could potentially increase DF rates, necessitating enhanced surveillance, public awareness campaigns on water storage, and the implementation of Integrated Vector Management.

• Statistical analysis of seasonal data from 2007 to 2014 in the Belize District indicates that rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) are major factors in dengue fever (DF) occurrence. Specifically, there is a positive association between rainfall and DF from September to November (r = 0.547) and December to February (r = 0.555), as well as a positive correlation between Tmin and DF for the same periods (r = 0.723 and 0.527, respectively). Conversely, a negative correlation exists between DF and maximum temperature (Tmax) across all seasons.
• Climate projections for the 2050s suggest a general increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures in all months. While mean wet-day precipitation is expected to decrease from May to September, there is a projected increase in the frequency and year-to-year variability of heavy rainfall during October and November.

APA

Ruiz, D., Goodess, C., & Joslyn, O. (2015). Dengue Fever in the Belize District. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf

Chicago

Ruiz, Diana, Clare Goodess, and Ottis Joslyn. Dengue Fever in the Belize District. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ruiz |first1=Diana |last2=Goodess |first2=Clare |last3=Joslyn |first3=Ottis |title=Dengue Fever in the Belize District |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=10 August 2015 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ruiz2015dengue, author = {Ruiz, Diana and Goodess, Clare and Joslyn, Ottis}, title = {{Dengue Fever in the Belize District}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = aug, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-Case-Study-Health-Sector-DF-Report-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }