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Dengue Fever in the Belize District
This case study analyzes the relationship between climate variables and dengue fever (DF) in the Belize District. Using historical data (2007-2014) and the CARIWIG weather generator, the study finds that rainfall and minimum temperatures are positively associated with DF occurrence. Projections for the 2050s indicate overall warming and a shift in precipitation patterns, including decreased rainfall from May to September and increased heavy rainfall in October and November. The report suggests that while some warming trends might reduce DF transmission, the increase in minimum temperatures and heavy rainfall events could potentially increase DF rates, necessitating enhanced surveillance, public awareness campaigns on water storage, and the implementation of Integrated Vector Management.
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Document type: Case study