Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This case study examines the impact of climate change on Arabica coffee production in Uganda's Bududa district. It finds that coffee yields have declined by approximately 66% since 1991 due to poor management and increased climate extremes like droughts and landslides. The report argues that adopting Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)—specifically shade trees, mulching, and trench construction—could significantly improve the internal rate of return (IRR) for farmers, even under future climate projections. While the required investment is high (up to US$4.9 million annually by 2019), the study concludes that the economic benefits of CSA outweigh the costs.

• Arabica coffee production in the Bududa district of the Mount Elgon region has seen a significant decline, with production falling from 12,000 tonnes in 1991 to approximately 5,000 tonnes in 2014, a reduction of around 66%.
• Climate variability, specifically excessive heat and droughts, has caused coffee production losses ranging from 10% to 75% in lower elevations (1,000-1,200 masl) and around 50% in highlands (1,500-2,000 masl).
• Extreme weather events have caused severe crop losses: a 2010 landslide in Nametsi Parish destroyed 60,000 coffee trees (loss of 41 tonnes), and an August 2013 hail stone event affected 357 hectares and 608,000 trees, resulting in an estimated yield loss of 304 tonnes of parchment.
• Climate projections for the Bududa district indicate that by the 2080s, rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10-12% and temperatures are expected to rise by between 2.7 and 4.6°C under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
• The adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)—defined here as planting shade trees, mulching, and trench construction—is estimated to increase the internal rate of return (IRR) of coffee cultivation from 16% to 25% under current climate variability, and from 9% to 22% under future climate conditions.
• Investment in a combined programme of CSA and institutional support is estimated to have an internal rate of return of around 36%.
• The estimated cost for implementing CSA in Bududa is US$2.4 million in 2016, rising to US$4.9 million by 2019, which significantly exceeds the Bududa District Local Government's existing institutional support budget of approximately US$214,329.
• Climate variability has led to severe social impacts in Bududa, including loss of life from landslides (e.g., 365 people killed in the 2010 Nametsi landslide), a reported 70% increase in malaria cases, and the destruction of critical infrastructure like the Bududa Circular road.
• The study identifies seven adaptation strategies, prioritizing Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and the strengthening of public institutional extension services, which are currently insufficient due to human and infrastructure constraints.

APA

Markandya, A., Dale, N., Garcia, J., Langoya, C., & Monkhouse, C. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study.pdf

Chicago

Markandya, Anil, Nick Dale, Jon Garcia, CD Langoya, and Claire Monkhouse. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markandya |first1=Anil |last2=Dale |first2=Nick |last3=Garcia |first3=Jon |last4=Langoya |first4=CD |last5=Monkhouse |first5=Claire |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=October 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markandya2015economic, author = {Markandya, Anil and Dale, Nick and Garcia, Jon and Langoya, CD and Monkhouse, Claire}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }