Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa

This policy brief examines the risks climate change poses to large-scale hydropower infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa and the current lack of climate service integration in the planning process. It argues that while hydropower is critical for energy security, most projects rely on historical data that ignore future hydrological shifts, leaving long-lived assets vulnerable to failure or inefficiency.

• Sub-Saharan Africa has significant untapped hydropower potential, with only 5% of an estimated 1,750 TWh/year currently utilized, though capacity could nearly quadruple in the next 20–30 years.
• Climate change threatens hydropower through several mechanisms: altering rainfall and river flow patterns, increasing reservoir evaporation, increasing sediment loads that damage turbines and reduce storage, and increasing flood magnitudes that raise the risk of dam failure.
• Most large hydropower schemes are planned using historical hydro-meteorological data from the last 30–50 years, operating on the now-invalid assumption that future hydrological patterns will remain stationary.
• Climate change is rarely integrated into hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa due to short planning horizons (rarely beyond 2050), the dominance of natural variability over predicted changes in the short term, and a lack of institutional arrangements to integrate climate information.
• Chinese financing has become a primary driver of hydropower development in the region; between 2001 and 2006, commitments averaged US$1.7 billion annually, focusing on six large projects totaling over 7,000 MW, yet these projects often fail to consider climate change effects.
• Regional climate projections indicate divergent trends for the period 2081–2100 compared to 1986–2005, with mean annual run-off likely increasing in East Africa and decreasing in Southern Africa.
• To improve resilience, the document recommends that new schemes be assessed within comprehensive catchment-wide planning, utilize downscaled global climate models, and prioritize designs that maximize flexibility and adaptive management.

APA

Lumbroso, D., & Woolhouse, G. (2015). Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf

Chicago

Lumbroso, Darren, and George Woolhouse. Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lumbroso |first1=Darren |last2=Woolhouse |first2=George |title=Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=January 2015 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lumbroso2015using, author = {Lumbroso, Darren and Woolhouse, George}, title = {{Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = jan, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }