Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa

The document argues that large-scale hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change, yet planning typically relies on historical data and ignores future projections. It identifies barriers to the adoption of climate services—including short planning horizons, institutional gaps, and the influence of Chinese financing—and recommends adopting flexible designs and catchment-wide planning based on downscaled climate models.

• Large-scale hydropower infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate change because it is long-lived and difficult to adapt once constructed; modifications such as increasing dam height or spillway size are often not technically or economically feasible.
• Most hydropower projects in sub-Saharan Africa are designed using historical hydro-meteorological data from the last 30–50 years, operating on the outdated assumption that future hydrological patterns will remain stationary.
• Climate change threatens hydropower performance through several mechanisms: altered rainfall and river flow patterns affecting turbine operation, increased reservoir evaporation, higher sediment loads causing storage loss and turbine damage, and increased flood magnitudes raising the risk of dam failure.
• Global climate models project divergent run-off trends for the period 2081–2100 compared to 1986 –2005, with mean annual run-off likely increasing in East Africa and decreasing in Southern Africa.
• Climate change is rarely integrated into hydropower planning due to short planning horizons (often not extending beyond 2050), a lack of institutional arrangements for climate information, and the fact that climate-driven changes are expected to emerge from natural variability only after the 2050s.
• Chinese financing has become a dominant force in the region's power sector, with commitments averaging US$1.7 billion per year between 2001 and 2006, yet these projects appear to ignore the effects of climate change in their planning and design.
• The document recommends that new hydropower schemes be assessed within comprehensive catchment-wide planning using downscaled global climate models to ensure they meet competing demands for energy, environment, and water supply.

APA

Lumbroso, D., & Woolhouse, G. (2015). Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf

Chicago

Lumbroso, Darren, and George Woolhouse. Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lumbroso |first1=Darren |last2=Woolhouse |first2=George |title=Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=January 2015 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lumbroso2015using, author = {Lumbroso, Darren and Woolhouse, George}, title = {{Using climate information for large-scale hydropower planning in sub-Saharan Africa}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = jan, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FCFA_PolicyBrief_DAMS_Final_WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }