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Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030
The analysis uses the International Futures (IFs) model and 2011 National Census data to simulate three population scenarios for South Africa by 2030 based on varying levels of in-migration: 64.4 million (rapidly declining), 66.4 million (stable), and 68.8 million (rapidly increasing). These projections are higher and exhibit greater variance than those in the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030. Extended analysis to 2050 indicates further increasing uncertainty for national planners. Provincial forecasts using the IFs Base Case also exceed NDP figures, particularly in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Western Cape, with implications for public policy in healthcare, education, employment, and service delivery.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa's Futures
Africa is experiencing rapid population growth and urbanisation, with a projected population of over 1.8 billion by 2035. While the continent shows a positive overall trend, growth is heterogeneous and often outpaced by population increases, leading to a projected rise in the number of people living in extreme poverty. The report highlights a 'demographic dividend' that remains delayed due to high fertility rates, and notes that while global democratic trends are declining, popular support for democracy in Africa remains strong despite fragile foundations. Security is shifting from large-scale interstate conflicts toward more complex, lower-fatality violence, including urban riots and terrorism. Economic growth is hindered by a lack of structural transformation and a significant infrastructure deficit, particularly in basic services like water and sanitation, which the report argues are more critical for poverty reduction than traditional trade infrastructure.
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Document type: Report
Invisible Stakeholders
The report examines the marginalisation of youth in Uganda, arguing that the state maintains power by subordinating young people and restricting their political agency. It highlights a disconnect between the 'success story' narrative of the Ugandan state and the reality of high youth unemployment, limited civil rights, and the 'invisibility' of youth in development agendas. The text explores various forms of mobilisation, from state-orchestrated electoral participation and populist movements to the lure of warlordism in Northern Uganda, while noting that skilled youth are often encouraged to emigrate to reduce domestic political opposition.
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Document type: Report
Educating Cape 2040: Building Blocks of Future Prosperity
The document assesses the Western Cape's education system, highlighting systemic inequalities, high grade repetition, and the impact of inward migration. It proposes the 'Educating Cape' scenario, which combines expanded Early Childhood Development (ECD) and improved pedagogical teacher training to boost primary and secondary survival rates, ultimately aiming to increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.
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Document type: Policy brief
Integrering og migrasjonsrelatert mangfold
The text explores integration as a two-way process between immigrants and the host society, contrasting assimilation with multiculturalism. It discusses the challenges of inclusion and racialization in Norway, provides a population-geographical analysis of Norway's diverse demographic composition, and introduces the concept of 'super-diversity' to describe the complex, layered diversity found in large cities.
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Document type: Report
Transnasjonal praksis
The text explores transnational practice as a spatial phenomenon where human actions and relationships stretch across national borders. It details key manifestations of this practice, including the economic impact of remittances, the symbolic and material role of transnational house building, and the political engagement of diasporas. The author argues that while these practices are central to the lives of migrants, digital technology has expanded transnational activity to a broader segment of the global population.
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Document type: Report
Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget
The authors examine the causal links between climate change and armed conflict, finding a significant gap between dramatic political claims of 'climate wars' and actual empirical data. They note a paradox where global warming has accelerated while the number of ongoing conflicts has declined. The paper outlines five potential mechanisms—political instability, social fragmentation, economic instability, migration, and unintended policy consequences—through which environmental stress might indirectly influence conflict, but concludes that these effects are heavily mediated by existing state capacity and socio-political conditions.
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Document type: Research paper
Making a difference in Mogadishu?
The research explores how young members of the Somali diaspora, specifically those born or raised in Norway and the United States, navigate their identities and civic participation. It challenges binary views of citizenship and integration, proposing 'multi-sited embeddedness' to describe how these individuals belong to and act within multiple communities simultaneously. The study finds that civic engagement is both a result of belonging and a tool used to claim inclusion in various national and local contexts.
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Document type: Research paper
Exploring Women’s Agency and Empowerment under Male Breadwinner Norms
The research examines the intersection of gender norms and economic necessity in Keti Bandar, a fishing town in Sindh, Pakistan. Despite high female labor force participation (50.5%), a strong belief persists that men should be the primary providers. The authors argue that women's empowerment in this context is derived from altruism—supporting their husbands and families—rather than from a desire for individual autonomy or resistance to patriarchal norms. This sense of empowerment is facilitated by the fact that the male breadwinner norm is maintained in discourse even as it is broken in practice. The study also highlights how environmental degradation and globalization have increased economic distress, forcing women into the labor market, while their mobility remains constrained by concerns over 'honor' and safety in public spaces.
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Document type: Research paper
A strategic consideration of the African Union Free Movement of Persons Protocol and other initiatives towards the freer movement of people in Africa
The document examines the African Union's efforts to enable the free movement of people across the continent, specifically focusing on the FMP Protocol. It identifies a significant gap between the rapid adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and the slow ratification of the FMP Protocol, which as of December 2020 had only four ratifications. The author argues that upper-middle-income countries are reluctant to liberalize borders due to fears of uncontrolled economic migration and potential populist backlash in unequal societies. The paper analyzes regional experiences—noting the relative success of the East African Community (EAC) and the stagnation of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) due to South African resistance—and suggests that the FMP Protocol's roadmap needs redrafting to include clear preconditions and asynchronous implementation paths.
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Document type: Research paper
Gender Women environmental defenders: Empowerment for transformative change
The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) is seeking proposals for events that center the voices of women environmental human rights defenders (EHRDs). The initiative focuses on the intersectional discrimination these women face and aims to foster cross-national networks and scalable practices in environmental protection and human rights advocacy. Priority is given to events that address the specific challenges of women EHRDs in Asia and cover themes such as climate change, disaster risk, and land grabbing.
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Document type: Briefing
Introducing indirect impacts of climate change on the adaptation agenda – responding to overseas climate change
The paper identifies a gap in climate adaptation policy, which typically focuses on domestic, territorial impacts. It proposes a framework for 'indirect impacts'—socio-economic or biophysical effects propagating from one region to another via trade, migration, or hydrological links. An analysis of seven Swedish and European forestry documents reveals that while market-driven outlooks consider global contexts, adaptation-specific policies remain strictly focused on local biophysical changes, ignoring the broader international dimensions of climate risk.
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Document type: Research paper
Los derechos a la comunicación: Más allá de la libertad de expresión
The report examines the gap between the ideal of communication rights and the reality of digital inequality, corporate control, and political censorship. It emphasizes that freedom of expression must be supported by rights to information, education, and cultural participation to be effective. The text highlights the marginalization of women and indigenous peoples, the risks of 'surveillance capitalism' and Big Tech, and the critical role of traditional ecological knowledge in addressing the climate crisis. It concludes by advocating for public interest media and a human-rights-based framework for the digital future.
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Document type: Report
Les droits de communication : au-delà de la liberté d’expression
The report advocates for 'communication rights' as a broader necessity than just freedom of expression, emphasizing that access to information, digital literacy, and diverse media ownership are essential for human rights and sustainable development. It identifies systemic barriers including political censorship, the 'surveillance economy' dominated by tech giants, and gender and ethnic disparities in digital access. The text specifically highlights the role of indigenous communication rights in preserving cultural autonomy and utilizing traditional ecological knowledge to combat the climate crisis. It concludes by calling for the protection of independent public-interest journalism against the polarising effects of algorithms and the financial decline of traditional media.
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Document type: Report
Recommandations aux journalistes qui enquêtent sur les migrations et les minorités
The guide outlines best practices for journalists covering migration and minorities, emphasizing the need to avoid stereotypes, dehumanizing language, and sensationalism. It advocates for the inclusion of diverse perspectives, including those of migrants themselves, and insists on grounding reports in factual data and deep context rather than political narratives. Specific recommendations include avoiding the term 'illegal' to describe people and critically contextualizing hate speech or political claims.
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Document type: Guide
Testimony of Dr. Jonathan Pershing before the Commission on Security & Cooperation in Europe
Dr. Jonathan Pershing of the World Resources Institute argues that energy security and climate goals are often aligned but require an integrated policy framework to avoid conflicts. He proposes effectiveness and political feasibility criteria to evaluate policies, noting that while efficiency and renewables offer 'double wins,' other options like natural gas imports or corn-based biofuels can create security risks or environmental damage. The testimony provides specific policy recommendations for the US regarding cap-and-trade, production tax credits, transportation, and biofuels, while also highlighting the vulnerability of developing nations and the risk of climate-induced conflict and migration.
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Document type: Statement
Alliance Statement
The ACT2025 Alliance Statement outlines a comprehensive 'Ambition, Solidarity, and Prosperity' package for COP26. It calls for major emitters to align NDCs with the 1.5°C goal, demands that developed countries meet and exceed the $100 billion annual climate finance pledge, and advocates for the operationalization of the Global Goal on Adaptation and the establishment of Loss and Damage as a permanent agenda item. The consortium emphasizes the need for a reformed financial system that prioritizes grants over loans and the adoption of a common five-year time frame for NDCs to ensure near-term accountability.
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Document type: Report
Food crisis in Central Sahel in 2022 driven by chronic vulnerability with uncertain role of climate change
The report examines the 2022 food crisis in the Central Sahel, which followed an erratic 2021 rainy season characterized by delayed onset and short duration. Using three observational datasets and multiple climate models, the study finds that it is impossible to significantly link these specific monsoon characteristics to anthropogenic climate change due to large uncertainties and discrepancies. Instead, the crisis is attributed to chronic vulnerabilities, including extreme poverty, armed conflict, political instability, and global economic shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Document type: Research paper
How to enjoy winter: 5 lessons from wildlife
The guide outlines five 'lessons' from wildlife to help humans navigate winter, focusing on energy conservation, active engagement with the environment, heat retention, resource preparation, and migration. It details specific animal behaviors—such as the torpor of brown bears, the insulating layers of musk oxen, and the migration of monarch butterflies—to suggest corresponding human mindsets for the season.
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Document type: Guide
Monarch milkweed finder
The guide identifies milkweed as the essential food source for monarch caterpillars and the only plant where they lay eggs. It attributes the decline of migratory monarch populations to the loss of millions of acres of milkweed caused by agricultural expansion, urban growth, and the use of herbicides and GMO crops. To mitigate this, the document provides a regional directory of native milkweed species for the US and Canada, categorized by soil and climate requirements, and encourages planting a variety of nectar-producing plants to support adult butterflies during their migration between Mexico and northern North America.
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Document type: Guide