Food crisis in Central Sahel in 2022 driven by chronic vulnerability with uncertain role of climate change

The report examines the 2022 food crisis in the Central Sahel, which followed an erratic 2021 rainy season characterized by delayed onset and short duration. Using three observational datasets and multiple climate models, the study finds that it is impossible to significantly link these specific monsoon characteristics to anthropogenic climate change due to large uncertainties and discrepancies. Instead, the crisis is attributed to chronic vulnerabilities, including extreme poverty, armed conflict, political instability, and global economic shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.

• The 2022 food crisis was preceded by an erratic 2021 rainy season where sowing dates were delayed by more than 15 days between June and July 2021 in central Mali, southern Niger, central Chad, and south of Mauritania.
• Severe water stress occurred in 2021, with less than 40% of crop water needs being met by 31 August 2021 in the affected regions.
• Cereal production decreased significantly in 2021, with Niger recording a 36% reduction and Burkina Faso a 10% reduction compared to the previous five-year average.
• The study concludes that it is impossible to establish a significant link between the 2021 monsoon season characteristics and anthropogenic climate change based on the indices and data used.
• The food crisis was exacerbated by socio-economic drivers, including the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 impacts on energy and crop prices, and political unrest and terrorism causing population displacements.
• Armed conflict since 2011 has severely increased vulnerability, with over three million people internally displaced and over one million becoming refugees in neighboring countries.
• Global economic factors led to soaring food prices by August 2022, with maize, millet, and sorghum prices rising by up to 60% in Chad and 40% in Niger.
• Humanitarian response plans for Niger and Chad remain critically underfunded, with less than half of the appeals funded.
• Agricultural yield losses in West Africa are increasingly linked to higher temperatures causing higher evapotranspiration and shorter crop cycles, regardless of rainfall changes.

APA

Brouillet, A., Sultan, B., Barnes, C., Zachariah, M., Otto, F. E. L., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Guigma, K., Heinrich, D., Kane, C., van Aalst, M., Thalheimer, L., Raju, E., Koren, G., Philip, S., Kew, S., Yang, W., & Vautard, R. (n.d.). Food crisis in Central Sahel in 2022 driven by chronic vulnerability with uncertain role of climate change. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WestAfrica_Foodcrisis_Scientific-report.pdf

Chicago

Brouillet, Audrey, Benjamin Sultan, Clair Barnes, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike E. L. Otto, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, et al. Food crisis in Central Sahel in 2022 driven by chronic vulnerability with uncertain role of climate change. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WestAfrica_Foodcrisis_Scientific-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{brouilletndfood, author = {Brouillet, Audrey and Sultan, Benjamin and Barnes, Clair and Zachariah, Mariam and Otto, Friederike E. L. and Vahlberg, Maja and Singh, Roop and Guigma, Kiswendsida and Heinrich, Dorothy and Kane, Cheikh and van Aalst, Maarten and Thalheimer, Lisa and Raju, Emmanuel and Koren, Gerbrand and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Yang, Wenchang and Vautard, Robert}, title = {{Food crisis in Central Sahel in 2022 driven by chronic vulnerability with uncertain role of climate change}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WestAfrica_Foodcrisis_Scientific-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }