Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget

The authors examine the causal links between climate change and armed conflict, finding a significant gap between dramatic political claims of 'climate wars' and actual empirical data. They note a paradox where global warming has accelerated while the number of ongoing conflicts has declined. The paper outlines five potential mechanisms—political instability, social fragmentation, economic instability, migration, and unintended policy consequences—through which environmental stress might indirectly influence conflict, but concludes that these effects are heavily mediated by existing state capacity and socio-political conditions.

• There is a stark contradiction between political rhetoric regarding 'climate wars' and empirical evidence; while global temperatures have risen rapidly in recent decades, the total number of ongoing armed conflicts has significantly decreased.
• Climate change is unlikely to be a direct cause of conflict but may act as a 'stress factor' that interacts with existing structural vulnerabilities such as poverty, ethnic polarization, and poor governance.
• The authors identify five causal mechanisms linking climate change to conflict: 1) weakening state legitimacy through reduced public revenue, 2) elite exploitation of resource competition to fuel ethnic radicalization, 3) loss of income in subsistence economies increasing individual propensity for violence, 4) migration leading to resource competition in recipient areas, and 5) unintended consequences of climate policies (e.g., biofuels increasing food prices).
• Political stability is a critical mediator; consolidated democracies and strong autocracies are less susceptible to climate-induced conflict than 'half-democratic' regimes, which lack both the capacity to suppress opposition and the channels for peaceful expression.
• Empirical studies on the link between rainfall/drought and conflict are inconsistent, with some showing a correlation in Sub-Saharan Africa and others finding that the effect disappears when controlling for temperature or when analyzed at a local level.
• There is a risk that the 'climate change' narrative is used by undemocratic regimes to evade responsibility for conflicts by attributing them to external environmental factors beyond their control.

APA

Urdal, H., Theisen, O. M., Gleditsch, N. P., & Buhaug, H. (n.d.). Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/602f12bd-a624-41e3-8ed7-f15bb0b1f5b5/Klimakriger En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Urdal, Henrik, Ole Magnus Theisen, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Halvard Buhaug. Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/602f12bd-a624-41e3-8ed7-f15bb0b1f5b5/Klimakriger En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Urdal |first1=Henrik |last2=Theisen |first2=Ole Magnus |last3=Gleditsch |first3=Nils Petter |last4=Buhaug |first4=Halvard |title=Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/602f12bd-a624-41e3-8ed7-f15bb0b1f5b5/Klimakriger En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{urdalndklimakriger, author = {Urdal, Henrik and Theisen, Ole Magnus and Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Buhaug, Halvard}, title = {{Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/602f12bd-a624-41e3-8ed7-f15bb0b1f5b5/Klimakriger En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }