Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030

The analysis uses the International Futures (IFs) model and 2011 National Census data to simulate three population scenarios for South Africa by 2030 based on varying levels of in-migration: 64.4 million (rapidly declining), 66.4 million (stable), and 68.8 million (rapidly increasing). These projections are higher and exhibit greater variance than those in the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030. Extended analysis to 2050 indicates further increasing uncertainty for national planners. Provincial forecasts using the IFs Base Case also exceed NDP figures, particularly in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Western Cape, with implications for public policy in healthcare, education, employment, and service delivery.

• Simulations of South Africa's population by 2030 based on different migration trends result in projections that are both higher and more varied than the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 figures. The three mid-range forecasts are 64.4 million with rapidly declining in-migration, 66.4 million with relatively stable in-migration, and 68.8 million with rapidly increasing in-migration.
• Analysis extending to 2050 reveals an even larger degree of uncertainty for South African policy makers and national planners than the 2030 projections.
• Provincial-level forecasts using the IFs Base Case are higher than the NDP's baseline for several provinces, specifically the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and the Eastern Cape.

APA

Go, A., Moyer, J. D., Rafa, M., & Schuenemann, J. (n.d.). Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030

Chicago

Go, Ara, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schuenemann. Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Go |first1=Ara |last2=Moyer |first2=Jonathan D. |last3=Rafa |first3=Mickey |last4=Schuenemann |first4=Julia |title=Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gondpopulation, author = {Go, Ara and Moyer, Jonathan D. and Rafa, Mickey and Schuenemann, Julia}, title = {{Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }