Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030

This research paper evaluates the population projections used in South Africa's National Development Plan (NDP) 2030, arguing that the NDP does not sufficiently account for the effects of migration. Using the International Futures (IFs) model and 2011 National Census data, the authors present three population scenarios for 2030 based on varying levels of in-migration, all of which are higher and represent a wider range of uncertainty than the NDP's figures.

• The authors argue that the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 fails to adequately consider the impact of migration on population dynamics. Using the International Futures (IFs) model and 2011 National Census data, the study projects three potential population totals for South Africa by 2030 depending on in-migration trends: 64.4 million if in-migration declines rapidly, 66.4 million if it remains relatively stable, and 68.8 million if it increases rapidly. This range is both higher and wider than the projections provided in the NDP.
• Extended analysis projecting to 2050 indicates an even greater level of uncertainty for national planners and policy makers. Furthermore, provincial-level forecasts using the IFs Base Case show higher baseline projections than the NDP for several provinces, specifically Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape, and the Eastern Cape.

APA

Go, A., Moyer, J. D., Rafa, M., & Schuenemann, J. (n.d.). Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030

Chicago

Go, Ara, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schuenemann. Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Go |first1=Ara |last2=Moyer |first2=Jonathan D. |last3=Rafa |first3=Mickey |last4=Schuenemann |first4=Julia |title=Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gondpopulation, author = {Go, Ara and Moyer, Jonathan D. and Rafa, Mickey and Schuenemann, Julia}, title = {{Population futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/research/papers/population-futures-revisiting-south-africas-national-development-plan-2030}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }