Africa's Futures

Africa is experiencing rapid population growth and urbanisation, with a projected population of over 1.8 billion by 2035. While the continent shows a positive overall trend, growth is heterogeneous and often outpaced by population increases, leading to a projected rise in the number of people living in extreme poverty. The report highlights a 'demographic dividend' that remains delayed due to high fertility rates, and notes that while global democratic trends are declining, popular support for democracy in Africa remains strong despite fragile foundations. Security is shifting from large-scale interstate conflicts toward more complex, lower-fatality violence, including urban riots and terrorism. Economic growth is hindered by a lack of structural transformation and a significant infrastructure deficit, particularly in basic services like water and sanitation, which the report argues are more critical for poverty reduction than traditional trade infrastructure.

• Africa's population is growing faster than any other region and is projected to increase from approximately 1.2 billion in 2017 to over 1.8 billion by 2035, representing a 50% increase.
• The 'demographic dividend'—the economic potential of a larger working-age population relative to dependents—is being delayed in sub-Saharan Africa by persistently high fertility rates.
• Despite economic growth, the absolute number of people living in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per day) in Africa is expected to rise by roughly 170 million by 2035, reaching over 600 million.
• Africa is the fastest-urbanising continent globally; by 2035, more than 50% of its population will live in urban areas, and by 2030, it will host six megacities with over 10 million inhabitants each.
• Contrary to global trends of democratic recession, popular support for democracy in Africa remains robust, with 67% of surveyed Africans preferring it as a political regime.
• Conflict in Africa is becoming more complex and frequent, shifting from high-fatality interstate wars toward urban riots, protests, and violence linked to terrorism and organised crime.
• African economies are failing to undergo traditional structural transformation; instead of moving from agriculture to manufacturing, they have shifted directly into the service sector.
• Sub-Saharan Africa faces a severe infrastructure deficit; scenario analysis indicates that investing in sanitation access has a larger positive impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction than investing in road networks.
• The vast majority of African migration—approximately 80%—occurs within the continent rather than to other continents.

APA

Bello, J., Milliers, J., Donenfeld, Z., Cousin, C., & Porter, A. (n.d.). Africa's Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/german-report-2.pdf

Chicago

Bello, Julia, Jakke Milliers, Zachary Donenfeld, Cara Cousin, and Alex Porter. Africa's Futures. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/german-report-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{bellondafricas, author = {Bello, Julia and Milliers, Jakke and Donenfeld, Zachary and Cousin, Cara and Porter, Alex}, title = {{Africa's Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/german-report-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }