Search Climate Insights Directory

The summer of 2017 saw extreme heat across Southern Europe, including the 'Lucifer' heat wave in early August. World Weather Attribution analysis indicates that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of these events. A summer as hot as 2017 is now estimated to have a 1 in 10 annual chance in the Euro-Mediterranean region and is projected to become normal weather by the middle of the century under continued greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis concludes that while Hurricane Harvey was an extremely rare event, global warming increased the intensity of its precipitation by approximately 15% and made such an event about three times more likely. Observational data and climate models indicate a trend of increasing extreme precipitation along the US Gulf Coast, often exceeding the standard Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The study emphasizes that while the storm's rarity makes it difficult to attribute its existence to climate change, the increased rainfall intensity contributed significantly to the flooding in Houston, which was further exacerbated by urban development and subsidence.

The paper identifies 'Knowledge of climate change' and 'Belief in anthropogenic CC' as the primary predictors of climate change opinion, which are further modulated by 'Risk aversion' to determine policy acceptance. It highlights the role of traditional media in polarizing opinion and the influence of political and religious orientations on beliefs. The authors argue that developed nations often perceive climate risks as distant due to higher mitigation and adaptation capacities, whereas more vulnerable, less wealthy communities exhibit higher risk awareness.

The study concludes that anthropogenic climate change significantly increased the likelihood of the June 2017 heat event across Western Europe. Using observational data and multiple climate model ensembles, researchers found that such extreme heat is now more frequent, occurring every 10 to 30 years depending on the country. The risk ratio was highest in Portugal and Spain, where the probability of such heat increased by more than ten times due to global warming. The report also notes that under high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), temperatures similar to June 2017 could become normal by the end of the century.

The analysis concludes that climate change had a small effect on the 2016 autumn drought in Somalia and Somaliland, with no significant trend in observed rainfall. However, a strong La Niña event significantly increased drought risks and explained approximately one third of the precipitation deficit. The severe food insecurity resulting from the drought was primarily driven by high human vulnerability caused by decades of conflict and political upheaval rather than meteorological factors alone.

The document discusses the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme heat events in India, highlighting the role of climate attribution science in identifying the human-induced causes of these events. It emphasizes that such science helps decision-makers create targeted heat action plans that account for vulnerability, exposure, and local factors like the urban heat island effect, air pollution, and humidity. The brief notes that while aerosols can temporarily lower peak temperatures, their reduction through clean energy policies may increase heat wave intensity. It advocates for coordinated government responses, early warning systems, and capacity building to protect marginalized populations, such as slum dwellers and outdoor workers, who are most at risk.

A group of legal scholars supports California SB 1161, which would revive certain civil claims under the Unfair Competition Law (UCL) related to climate science misinformation. The authors argue that fossil fuel companies may have misled the public about climate risks as early as the 1950s and that the bill's time-limited revival of causes of action is a reasonable way to ensure these cases are decided on their merits rather than being barred by the statute of limitations.

The study investigates the 2014/15 drought in southeast Brazil, specifically focusing on the impacts in São Paulo. Using a multi-method approach including historical observations and climate model simulations, the researchers found limited evidence that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions increased the hydrometeorological hazard. Instead, the severe impacts on water supply were primarily attributed to rapid population growth and increased water consumption.

The report details a survey of US broadcast meteorologists, finding that over 90% believe climate change is occurring and most believe it has already influenced local weather, water resources, and agriculture. While many feel it is appropriate to report climate science, they face obstacles such as lack of time in newscasts. The survey also highlights a gap between the meteorologists' perception of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change and the actual consensus reported in literature.

The document contrasts scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change with the activities of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). It asserts that ALEC, funded by fossil fuel interests, promotes misinformation to state legislators to block EPA regulations and repeal renewable energy standards.

The April 2013 survey indicates that while a majority of Americans (63%) believe global warming is happening, there was a 7-point decline in this belief since Fall 2012, potentially due to a cold winter and March. About half of Americans believe global warming is human-caused and express worry about the issue. However, global warming is primarily perceived as a distant threat affecting future generations, other species, and people in developing countries more than individuals personally. There is also a trend of Americans feeling they have sufficient information to form opinions on the subject.

The report finds that while a majority of Americans believe global warming is happening, this belief and the level of worry about it declined between Fall 2012 and April 2013, potentially due to seasonal weather effects. It highlights a persistent perception of climate change as a distant threat, though a significant minority now see it as a current harm to themselves and their communities.

Between January 2010 and September 2012, American belief in the reality of global warming rose from 57% to 70%, while those denying it fell from 20% to 12%. By September 2012, 54% of Americans attributed global warming mostly to human activities, and 58% expressed being "somewhat" or "very worried" about the issue. Perceptions of global warming as a current and future threat to individuals, families, communities, and nations—both in the United States and globally—showed significant increases since March 2012.

The 2011 survey of US television meteorologists reveals that while 82% believe the climate is changing, a significant portion attributes this to natural causes rather than human activity. The study identifies five distinct groups based on these beliefs and finds that most weathercasters underestimate the scientific consensus on anthropogenic warming. Key barriers to reporting include lack of time and scientific uncertainty, while there is a strong demand for high-quality graphics and regional projections. The report also highlights deep distrust of climate models and the motivations of scientists among 'Unconvinced' and 'Undecided' meteorologists.

The report examines the American Statistical Association's (ASA) financial ties to the fossil fuel industry and its public stance on climate change. While the ASA has endorsed the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change and lacks evidence of direct corporate sponsorship from fossil fuel companies, it holds $21.9 million in publicly traded securities without a public ethical investment policy or disclosure of where these funds are held. Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR) argues that this lack of transparency makes it impossible to rule out investments in fossil fuels, which would contradict the ASA's own ethical guidelines and the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The document reports that 2014 was the hottest year on record, continuing a 38-year trend of above-average global temperatures. It highlights that monthly temperatures have remained above average since December 1984 and links this warming trend to manmade greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in costly climate disasters.

The study finds that while overall spring minimum temperatures are increasing, human-caused warming has advanced the start of the growing season (bud burst), exposing plants to more intense frosts. The April 2021 event in central France is attributed in part to this shift, with models projecting an increase in the frequency of such growing-period frosts in a 2°C warmer climate.

The study concludes that human-induced climate change made the March-April 2022 heatwave in India and Pakistan approximately 30 times more likely and about 1
C hotter than in a pre-industrial climate. The event, defined as a 1-in-100-year occurrence in today's climate, caused at least 90 deaths, triggered glacial lake outburst floods in northern Pakistan, and led to significant wheat crop yield losses in India, prompting a wheat export ban. The researchers warn that at 2
C of global warming, such heatwaves will become an additional factor of 2-20 more likely and 0.5-1.5
C hotter. Vulnerability is highest among outdoor daily wage earners and urban poor in informal settlements, though the report notes that Heat Action Plans in India, now covering 130 cities, can effectively reduce mortality.

The study finds that the July 2019 heatwave in Western Europe was made significantly more likely and intense by human-induced climate change. In France and the Netherlands, the event would have been extremely improbable without human influence, with return periods exceeding 1,000 years. Across all analyzed locations, the heatwave was 1.5 to 3 °C hotter than it would have been in an unchanged climate. The analysis utilized a combination of observational data and eight climate model ensembles, noting that while models generally underestimate temperature trends and overestimate variability, they still simulate large probability changes.

The report attributes the 2022 West African floods to a combination of anthropogenic climate change, which significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of rainfall in the Lake Chad and Lower Niger basins, and systemic vulnerabilities including poor water management, rapid unplanned urbanization, and socioeconomic instability. In the Lake Chad region, climate change made the seasonal rainfall event approximately 80 times more likely and 20% more intense. In the Lower Niger basin, the 7-day maximum rainfall event became about twice as likely and 5% more intense. The human toll was exacerbated by the release of the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon and the proximity of settlements to floodplains.