Euro-Mediterranean heat summer 2017

The summer of 2017 saw extreme heat across Southern Europe, including the 'Lucifer' heat wave in early August. World Weather Attribution analysis indicates that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of these events. A summer as hot as 2017 is now estimated to have a 1 in 10 annual chance in the Euro-Mediterranean region and is projected to become normal weather by the middle of the century under continued greenhouse gas emissions.

• Human-caused climate change increased the probability of a summer as hot as 2017 by at least a factor of 10 and a three-day heat wave like 'Lucifer' by at least a factor of four since 1900.
• In the Euro-Mediterranean region, the return period for a summer with maximum temperatures similar to 2017 is approximately 10 years, representing a 10% annual chance. This is a significant increase from the early 1900s, where the best estimate for the return period was roughly once in 2,000 years.
• Projections indicate that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, summers like 2017 will become normal in the Euro-Mediterranean region by the middle of the century.
• Analysis of Southeast Europe (824E, 3648N) shows that the risk of three-day heat waves like the one in August 2017 has at least quintupled since 1950, with a best estimate risk ratio of 140.
• Station-level data from Spain, France, Italy, and Croatia confirm a positive trend toward higher three-day summer temperature extremes, with probabilities in 2017 being at least three-fold compared to 1950.
• The 2017 heat wave caused significant socio-economic impacts, including forest fires in Albania, Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Croatia, Greece, and Italy, and severe agricultural losses, such as Bosnia reporting a loss of half its normal agricultural output.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2017). Euro-Mediterranean heat summer 2017. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/euro-mediterranean-heat-summer-2017/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Euro-Mediterranean heat summer 2017. 2017. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/euro-mediterranean-heat-summer-2017/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Euro-Mediterranean heat summer 2017 |date=27 September 2017 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/euro-mediterranean-heat-summer-2017/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2017euromediterranean, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Euro-Mediterranean heat summer 2017}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2017}, month = sep, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/euro-mediterranean-heat-summer-2017/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }