Search Climate Insights Directory

The analysis finds a very weak correlation between a country's institutional readiness and its citizens' perceived personal preparedness for extreme weather. While some countries like Vietnam show high levels of both, others like Armenia have high institutional readiness but low personal preparedness, and the Philippines shows high personal preparedness despite lower institutional readiness. The study emphasizes that climate resilience requires tailored strategies based on these distinct gaps, noting that 48 of the 68 examined countries rank in the bottom half of global institutional readiness.

The Augures! project uses an integrated modelling framework—combining seasonal forecasts, crop models, and economic models—to help European farmers and policymakers manage climate risks. A 2024 stakeholder workshop in Athens highlighted the need for context-specific, transparent, and actionable climate data to address structural vulnerabilities in the EU agricultural sector, particularly for small-scale farmers. The project aims to expand its analysis of maize and wheat to Greece, France, Romania, and Hungary in 2025, while developing a 'project-to-product' roadmap to transform scientific outputs into a user-friendly decision-support service.

The summer of 2017 saw extreme heat across Southern Europe, including the 'Lucifer' heat wave in early August. World Weather Attribution analysis indicates that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of these events. A summer as hot as 2017 is now estimated to have a 1 in 10 annual chance in the Euro-Mediterranean region and is projected to become normal weather by the middle of the century under continued greenhouse gas emissions.

The research paper examines the trajectory of Održivi razvoj Hrvatske (ORaH), the first green party in Croatia, which saw its popularity peak at 16.8% in 2014 before collapsing to 0.6% by 2016. The author attributes this failure to a combination of strategic political errors—specifically the decision to support incumbent President Ivo Josipović—and internal structural weaknesses, including a 'top-down' organizational approach and a lack of grassroots infrastructure. The text concludes that while there is a growing appetite for green ideas in Croatia and Southeast Europe, future success for green parties depends on building stable bases through grassroots movements rather than relying on the charisma of a single leader.

The Augures! project's 2023/2024 results evaluate the accuracy of seasonal weather forecasts and their ability to predict crop yields and economic impacts. Findings indicate that temperature anomalies are most accurately predicted in Southeastern Europe during summer months, while wheat and maize yields in Greece can be forecast 3-4 and 2 months in advance, respectively. The report emphasizes that extreme weather events cannot be predicted months in advance, necessitating investment in disaster preparedness, and calls for better farm management data to improve socio-economic impact predictions regarding poverty and food security.