Key policy-relevant findings emerging from Augures! 2023/2024 results

The Augures! project's 2023/2024 results evaluate the accuracy of seasonal weather forecasts and their ability to predict crop yields and economic impacts. Findings indicate that temperature anomalies are most accurately predicted in Southeastern Europe during summer months, while wheat and maize yields in Greece can be forecast 3-4 and 2 months in advance, respectively. The report emphasizes that extreme weather events cannot be predicted months in advance, necessitating investment in disaster preparedness, and calls for better farm management data to improve socio-economic impact predictions regarding poverty and food security.

• The accuracy of seasonal temperature predictions varies by region and time of year, showing higher precision for Southeastern Europe and the summer months from June to September.
• It is impossible to predict extreme weather events several months in advance due to atmospheric chaos; for example, forecasts in August 2023 failed to predict the record rainfall in Greece in September 2023. Consequently, disaster preparedness programmes are essential.
• In Greece, crop yields can be predicted with sufficient skill several months ahead, though wheat yields can be forecast earlier (3-4 months) than maize yields (2 months).
• Economic modelling of socio-economic impacts is currently more accurate for wheat yields than for maize yields, with significant variance across subnational regions due to the diversity of farming systems.
• While predictions for food security and poverty rates are possible, their accuracy depends on significant investment in high-quality farm management data to enable targeted policy interventions.

APA

Climate Strategies (n.d.). Key policy-relevant findings emerging from Augures! 2023/2024 results. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Key-policy-relevant-findings-emerging-from-Augures-20232024-results-.pdf

Chicago

Climate Strategies. Key policy-relevant findings emerging from Augures! 2023/2024 results. n.d. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Key-policy-relevant-findings-emerging-from-Augures-20232024-results-.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Strategies |title=Key policy-relevant findings emerging from Augures! 2023/2024 results |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Key-policy-relevant-findings-emerging-from-Augures-20232024-results-.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatestrategiesndkey, author = {{Climate Strategies}}, title = {{Key policy-relevant findings emerging from Augures! 2023/2024 results}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Key-policy-relevant-findings-emerging-from-Augures-20232024-results-.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }