Somalia drought 2016-2017

The analysis concludes that climate change had a small effect on the 2016 autumn drought in Somalia and Somaliland, with no significant trend in observed rainfall. However, a strong La Niña event significantly increased drought risks and explained approximately one third of the precipitation deficit. The severe food insecurity resulting from the drought was primarily driven by high human vulnerability caused by decades of conflict and political upheaval rather than meteorological factors alone.

• The 2016 autumn (Deyr) rains failed in both Somalia and Somaliland, with precipitation averaging about half of the normal amount for the second half of the year. In some local areas, rainfall was less than 20 percent of normal.
• The drought event of 2016 had vastly different return periods depending on the region: it was a relatively common event in Somalia, occurring roughly every 15 years, but an extreme, once-a-century event in Somaliland.
• Analysis of historical observations from 1900 to 2014 and data from two of three climate models showed no significant trend in rainfall due to climate change. The authors conclude that the effect of climate change on autumn dry extremes in these regions is small compared to natural variability.
• A strong La Niña event active during the drought increased the probability of a dry season and accounted for approximately one third of the precipitation deficit.
• The severe food insecurity observed as of March 2017, where over 40 percent of the population needed emergency food assistance, was triggered by depressed rainfall but primarily driven by high vulnerability resulting from decades of conflict and political upheaval.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2017). Somalia drought 2016-2017. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/somalia-drought-2016-2017/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Somalia drought 2016-2017. 2017. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/somalia-drought-2016-2017/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Somalia drought 2016-2017 |date=30 March 2017 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/somalia-drought-2016-2017/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2017somalia, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Somalia drought 2016-2017}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/somalia-drought-2016-2017/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }