European heat June 2017

The study concludes that anthropogenic climate change significantly increased the likelihood of the June 2017 heat event across Western Europe. Using observational data and multiple climate model ensembles, researchers found that such extreme heat is now more frequent, occurring every 10 to 30 years depending on the country. The risk ratio was highest in Portugal and Spain, where the probability of such heat increased by more than ten times due to global warming. The report also notes that under high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), temperatures similar to June 2017 could become normal by the end of the century.

• Human-caused climate change significantly increased the probability of the June 2017 extreme heat, making it at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England, and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain.
• The June 2017 heat event is no longer a rare occurrence in the current climate, with return periods ranging from approximately 10 years in northern countries and Switzerland to around 20 years in France, Spain, and Portugal.
• Observational data indicates that the risk ratio (the change in likelihood of the event due to climate change) is particularly high in southern Europe, with Spain showing a risk ratio of 9000 and Portugal 2000 when comparing the 2017 climate to that of 1901.
• Climate model projections suggest that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the temperatures observed in June 2017 will become normal and occur almost every year by 2100 for all analyzed regions.
• The heat event was associated with severe secondary impacts, including a deadly forest fire in Portugal that killed at least 64 people and a major forest fire in Spain that displaced over 1,500 people.
• There is a notable discrepancy between the risk ratios derived from observations and those from most climate models, particularly for maximum temperatures in Portugal and Spain, though the cause of this underestimation in models remains unknown.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2017). European heat June 2017. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. European heat June 2017. 2017. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=European heat June 2017 |date=29 June 2017 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2017european, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{European heat June 2017}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2017}, month = jun, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }