Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely

The study concludes that human-induced climate change made the March-April 2022 heatwave in India and Pakistan approximately 30 times more likely and about 1
C hotter than in a pre-industrial climate. The event, defined as a 1-in-100-year occurrence in today's climate, caused at least 90 deaths, triggered glacial lake outburst floods in northern Pakistan, and led to significant wheat crop yield losses in India, prompting a wheat export ban. The researchers warn that at 2
C of global warming, such heatwaves will become an additional factor of 2-20 more likely and 0.5-1.5
C hotter. Vulnerability is highest among outdoor daily wage earners and urban poor in informal settlements, though the report notes that Heat Action Plans in India, now covering 130 cities, can effectively reduce mortality.

• Human-caused climate change increased the probability of the 2022 heatwave by a factor of approximately 30, and the event would have been about 1
  C cooler in a pre-industrial climate.
• The 2022 heatwave is estimated to have caused at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan, though this number is expected to rise.
• The heatwave caused significant agricultural damage, including a 20% shortfall in all-India wheat yield, which led the Indian government to ban most wheat exports to protect domestic food security.
• The event triggered secondary disasters, including an extreme Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in northern Pakistan's Hunza valley on May 7 and approximately 300 large forest fires in India on April 28.
• Future warming to a global mean temperature of +2
  C is projected to make such heatwaves an additional factor of 2-20 more likely and 0.5-1.5
  C hotter than in 2022.
• The 2022 event was characterized as a "dry heatwave" due to significantly below-average rainfall and humidity, which reduced the relative importance of humidity for health impacts compared to late-season or coastal heatwaves.
• Urban poor in informal settlements are disproportionately affected due to housing materials like tin roofs that intensify indoor temperatures and the urban heat island effect, which can increase local heat by up to 12
  C.

APA

Zachariah, M., T, A., AchutaRao, K., Saeed, F., Jha, R., Dhasmana, M. K., Mondal, A., Bonnet, R., Vautard, R., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Heinrich, D., Thalheimer, L., Marghidan, C. P., Kapoor, A., van Aalst, M., ... Otto, F. E. L. (n.d.). Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/India_Pak-Heatwave-scientific-report.pdf

Chicago

Zachariah, Mariam, Arulalan T, Krishna AchutaRao, Fahad Saeed, Roshan Jha, Manish Kumar Dhasmana, Arpita Mondal, et al. Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/India_Pak-Heatwave-scientific-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zachariah |first1=Mariam |last2=T |first2=Arulalan |last3=AchutaRao |first3=Krishna |last4=Saeed |first4=Fahad |last5=Jha |first5=Roshan |last6=Dhasmana |first6=Manish Kumar |last7=Mondal |first7=Arpita |last8=Bonnet |first8=Remy |last9=Vautard |first9=Robert |display-authors=etal |title=Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely |publisher=World Weather Attribution |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/India_Pak-Heatwave-scientific-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zachariahndclimate, author = {Zachariah, Mariam and T, Arulalan and AchutaRao, Krishna and Saeed, Fahad and Jha, Roshan and Dhasmana, Manish Kumar and Mondal, Arpita and Bonnet, Remy and Vautard, Robert and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Vahlberg, Maja and Singh, Roop and Arrighi, Julie and Heinrich, Dorothy and Thalheimer, Lisa and Marghidan, Carolina Pereira and Kapoor, Aditi and van Aalst, Maarten and Raju, Emmanuel and Li, Sihan and Sun, Jingru and Vecchi, Gabriel and Yang, Wenchang and Hauser, Mathias and Schumacher, Dominik L. and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Harrington, Luke J. and Otto, Friederike E. L.}, title = {{Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/India_Pak-Heatwave-scientific-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }