Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe

The study finds that the July 2019 heatwave in Western Europe was made significantly more likely and intense by human-induced climate change. In France and the Netherlands, the event would have been extremely improbable without human influence, with return periods exceeding 1,000 years. Across all analyzed locations, the heatwave was 1.5 to 3 °C hotter than it would have been in an unchanged climate. The analysis utilized a combination of observational data and eight climate model ensembles, noting that while models generally underestimate temperature trends and overestimate variability, they still simulate large probability changes.

• The July 2019 heatwave saw record-breaking temperatures in Western Europe, including the first instances of temperatures exceeding 40°C in Belgium and the Netherlands, and a new historical daily maximum in the U.K.
• In France and the Netherlands, the heatwave was a rare event in the current climate with return periods between 50 and 150 years, but it would have been extremely unlikely without human-induced climate change, with return periods estimated at over 1,000 years.
• In Germany and the U.K., the event was less rare, with current return periods of 10-30 years, and the likelihood was increased by at least 3 to 10 times due to climate change.
• Across all analyzed locations, human-induced climate change increased the temperature of the event by approximately 1.5 to 3 °C.
• Climate models used in the study exhibit systematic biases, including overestimating year-to-year variability and underestimating temperature trends by about 50% in Western Europe compared to observations.
• The study notes that every European heatwave analyzed in recent years (including 2003, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, and June 2019) was found to be more intense and likely due to human-induced climate change.

APA

Vautard, R., Boucher, O., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Vogel, M. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Schneider, M., Drouin, A., Ribes, A., Kreienkamp, F., Stott, P., & van Aalst, M. (n.d.). Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/July2019heatwave.pdf

Chicago

Vautard, Robert, Olivier Boucher, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Martha M. Vogel, Sonia I. Seneviratne, et al. Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/July2019heatwave.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Vautard |first1=Robert |last2=Boucher |first2=Olivier |last3=van Oldenborgh |first3=Geert Jan |last4=Otto |first4=Friederike |last5=Haustein |first5=Karsten |last6=Vogel |first6=Martha M. |last7=Seneviratne |first7=Sonia I. |last8=Soubeyroux |first8=Jean-Michel |last9=Schneider |first9=Michel |display-authors=etal |title=Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe |publisher=World Weather Attribution |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/July2019heatwave.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vautardndhuman, author = {Vautard, Robert and Boucher, Olivier and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Otto, Friederike and Haustein, Karsten and Vogel, Martha M. and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel and Schneider, Michel and Drouin, Agathe and Ribes, Aurélien and Kreienkamp, Frank and Stott, Peter and van Aalst, Maarten}, title = {{Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/July2019heatwave.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }