Search Climate Insights Directory

The study finds that the July 2019 heatwave in Western Europe was made significantly more likely and intense by human-induced climate change. In France and the Netherlands, the event would have been extremely improbable without human influence, with return periods exceeding 1,000 years. Across all analyzed locations, the heatwave was 1.5 to 3 °C hotter than it would have been in an unchanged climate. The analysis utilized a combination of observational data and eight climate model ensembles, noting that while models generally underestimate temperature trends and overestimate variability, they still simulate large probability changes.