Search Climate Insights Directory
155 results
Guardians of the Headwaters II: Biodiversity, water, and climate in six snow leopard landscapes
The report analyzes six snow leopard landscapes in high Asia, finding that while habitat is often well-protected (averaging 50%), critical gaps in connectivity exist. It highlights that climate change will cause warming of 1.7°C to 3.6°C by mid-century, potentially shifting 60-80% of Eastern Himalayan habitats from alpine grasslands to forest ecosystems. The study also identifies the Central Tien Shan as a key 'water tower' providing essential spring runoff to downstream communities, while noting that all landscapes face risks from permafrost melt and shortened winters.
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Document type: Report
Guardians of the Headwaters II
The report analyzes six snow leopard landscapes in Bhutan, India, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, and Pakistan, finding that while many habitats are protected, critical gaps in connectivity and significant vulnerabilities to climate change persist. Key risks include treeline shifts reducing alpine grasslands, permafrost melt, and increased flood risks from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The study emphasizes the necessity of transboundary management and adaptive planning to maintain metapopulation connectivity as warming temperatures shift ecological zones and human land-use patterns.
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Document type: Report
Desain Valuasi Sumberdaya Alam untuk Tingkat Kabupaten di Kalimantan Tengah
The paper argues that current land valuation in Indonesia fails to account for critical ecosystem services such as carbon stocks and water provision, leading to suboptimal land-use decisions. It proposes a new valuation approach combining GIS, participatory methods, and expert opinion to align conflicting government regulations. The authors specifically highlight Kotawaringin Timur as a priority area for this approach due to its high deforestation rates, significant concentration of palm oil mills, and the presence of 27,502 hectares of high conservation value areas that are currently under-protected.
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Document type: Research paper
Kajian Nilai Konservasi Tinggi Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah
The study identifies that over half of Central Kalimantan's land area consists of High Conservation Value (HCV) zones, with approximately 61.6% of these areas currently threatened by planned development. The analysis focuses on five specific HCV categories—protected areas, large natural landscapes, transition ecosystems, rare/endangered ecosystems, and specific environmental services—to provide a scientific basis for the province's spatial planning and sustainable development goals.
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Document type: Executive summary
Design for a District Level Natural Capital Assessment in Central Kalimantan
The paper argues that land in Indonesia is systematically undervalued because current assessments fail to comprehensively account for ecosystem services and lack integration with spatial planning and licensing processes. To address this, the authors propose a district-level natural capital assessment pilot, specifically recommending Kotawaringin Timur due to its high concentration of high conservation value areas under plantation status and its potential for low-emission oil palm productivity gains. The proposed methodology integrates Ministry of Environment and Forestry Regulation No. 15/2012 and Ministry of Finance Regulation No. 98/PMK.06/2010, utilizing a combination of GIS, inventories, participatory approaches, and expert judgment to inform a 'Production and Protection' approach to land management.
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Document type: Research paper
Central Kalimantan High Conservation Value Provincial Assessment
The assessment finds that 60% of Central Kalimantan's land area contains High Conservation Value (HCV) areas, with 62% of these areas threatened by development. The report identifies critical hotspots in five districts and highlights logging and spatial planning as primary drivers of forest loss, which declined by 32% between 1973 and 2012.
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Document type: Report
GLOBAL FOREST WATCH WATER METADATA DOCUMENT
The World Resources Institute developed Global Forest Watch Water (GFW Water) to provide a public database and mapping tool for 230 major global watersheds. The tool assesses watershed health by scoring four primary risks—recent forest loss, historical forest loss, erosion, and fire—within the context of baseline water stress. It aims to support downstream beneficiaries, financing institutions, and researchers in implementing natural infrastructure, such as forest protection and restoration, to enhance water security and quality. The document details the underlying hydrologic science, the specific spatial data sets used (including Landsat imagery and the RUSLE erosion model), and the normalization process used to generate risk scores from 1 to 5.
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Document type: Report
The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas
The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed 18 strategic US military installations on the East and Gulf coasts, finding that most face significant risks from rising seas. Under a 'highest' scenario of sea level rise, some bases could lose between 75 and 95 percent of their land area by 2100. The report highlights that tidal flooding frequency will increase steeply, and storm surges will reach further inland and with greater depth. It emphasizes the need for high-resolution mapping and regional collaboration, noting that the vulnerability of surrounding low-income and minority communities can further compromise base operations.
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Document type: Executive summary
Natural connections: How natural capital supports Myanmar’s people and economy
The report assesses Myanmar's natural capital, focusing on four key ecosystem services: sediment retention for water quality, dry-season water availability, flood risk reduction, and coastal protection. Using InVEST models and climate projections, it identifies critical areas where natural ecosystems support human populations and infrastructure. The findings indicate that while the volume of services (such as sediment retention) will likely change due to increased rainfall under climate change, the geographic 'hotspots' of these services are expected to remain stable. The report emphasizes the overlap between these service-providing areas and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), arguing that protecting these synergies is vital for both human resilience and wildlife conservation. It specifically highlights the Tanintharyi region as an example of where infrastructure projects, like the Dawei road, could threaten critical natural capital.
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Document type: Report
Lights Out? Storm Surge, Blackouts, and How Clean Energy Can Help
The document describes the methodology for assessing the exposure of power plants and substations to flooding under a Category 3 hurricane scenario across five U.S. coastal regions. It utilizes the National Climate Assessment's Intermediate-High sea level rise scenario and the SLOSH model for storm surge, projecting risks through 2070. The analysis identifies a growing number of 'exposed' facilities, particularly in the Central Gulf Coast and Southeastern Florida, while noting limitations such as the exclusion of small distribution-level substations and the potential for local flood protection measures to mitigate risk.
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Document type: Report
Analyzing Vulnerability of the Belize Coastal Tourism Sector
The report identifies high-risk hotspots in Belize's coastal tourism sector, particularly Ambergris Caye, Caye Caulker, and the Central and South Central regions, which face significant threats from sea-level rise, thermal stress on coral reefs, and hurricane intensity. It highlights that 86% of tourism facilities are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, with potential GDP losses of over US $61 million from a 1m rise. While some regions like the Northern and Southern areas show medium vulnerability, the overall outlook suggests a high potential impact on the industry's future viability.
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Document type: Report
A new era in the fight against deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
The document analyzes the slowdown of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, noting that while overall rates dropped by 83% from 2004 to 2012, progress has stalled. It argues that previous command-and-control measures were more effective for large landowners than for smallholders or those in remote areas. The brief recommends shifting toward incentive-based policies, adopting higher-resolution monitoring technology, and tailoring interventions to specific actor types to achieve Brazil's 2020 deforestation goals.
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Document type: Policy brief
Uma nova era no combate ao desmatamento na Amazônia brasileira: oportunidades para melhorar a efetividade de políticas públicas
The document analyzes the effectiveness of Brazil's anti-deforestation policies in the Amazon, noting that while an 83% reduction in annual deforestation was achieved between 2004 and 2012, progress has since stagnated. It argues that previous 'command and control' measures primarily targeted large landowners and critical frontiers, leaving smallholders and remote areas less addressed. The authors recommend shifting toward incentive-based policies for small farmers, adopting high-resolution radar monitoring to detect smaller clearings, and focusing on forest degradation rather than just total forest cover.
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Document type: Policy brief
Defining South Africa’s Water Source Areas
The report identifies strategic water source areas (SWSAs) across South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland, finding that just 8% of the land surface area generates 50% of the region's mean annual runoff. It assesses the land cover and protection status of these areas, noting that while 63% of SWSAs in South Africa remain in a natural condition, only 16% have formal legal protection. The document highlights threats from plantation forestry, cultivation, and mining, specifically noting that over 70% of SWSAs in Mpumalanga are under mining or prospecting licenses.
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Document type: Report
Rural poverty and Food insecurity mapping at district level for improved agricultural water management in the Limpopo River Basin
The study maps rural poverty and food insecurity at the district level across Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe from 2003 to 2013. It finds that while CPWF-LBDC research sites are generally located in poor areas, they are not always in the poorest districts. The report emphasizes that female- and child-headed households are the most vulnerable across all four countries and argues that poverty indices should be a primary factor in selecting sites for AWM interventions to effectively reduce food insecurity and poverty.
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Document type: Research paper
Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam
The document uses a global-to-local modelling approach to project land use changes in Vietnam up to 2030. It finds that economic growth and urbanisation will lead to a significant loss of paddy rice land and protected forests, while climate-induced flooding poses a severe threat to the Red River and Mekong River Deltas. The study highlights critical policy trade-offs between reducing greenhouse gas emissions through reforestation and maintaining national food security targets.
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Document type: Policy brief
Groundwater use in agriculture risks aquifer over-exploitation: Managing water at the local level in Mexico to buffer against global change
The document highlights the risk of aquifer over-exploitation in Mexico, where agriculture uses over two-thirds of the approximately 29 km3 of groundwater pumped annually. It argues that because groundwater and surface water use varies significantly at the municipality level, management interventions must be tailored to this scale. The text identifies three types of municipal clusters: red areas where high groundwater use by both the municipality and its neighbors necessitates demand management; green areas with low pressure on resources; and yellow/orange areas where differences in water use between neighbors allow for potential transfers or allocation adjustments.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Riego con agua subterránea y sobreexplotación de acuíferos
The document highlights the critical need for municipal-level data in managing Mexico's water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid northern regions where commercial agriculture relies heavily on groundwater. It notes that Mexico uses 29 km3 of groundwater annually, with over two-thirds dedicated to agriculture. The text explains that while the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) manages resources at the larger scale of river basins and aquifers, municipal-scale analysis reveals significant variations in exploitation levels. This granularity allows policymakers to distinguish between areas where demand must be reduced and areas where water can be reallocated or substituted between surface and groundwater sources to prevent irreversible aquifer degradation and ensure intergenerational equity.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Horizontal Inequalities and Ethno-Nationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison
The research argues that both economic and political horizontal inequalities (HIs) are significant drivers of ethno-nationalist civil war. Using a novel combination of geo-coded ethnic settlement data and spatial wealth measures, the authors find that ethnic groups whose wealth deviates significantly from the national average—whether they are relatively affluent or impoverished—are more prone to conflict. This effect persists even when controlling for political exclusion from executive power, which itself is a strong predictor of conflict. The findings challenge contemporary 'opportunity-based' theories of civil war that dismiss grievances, suggesting instead that structural asymmetries act as mobilizational resources for collective violence.
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Document type: Research paper
Sumatra’s Forests, their Wildlife and the Climate Windows in Time: 1985, 1990, 2000 and 2009
The report documents a severe decline in Sumatra's natural forests, which shrank from 25.3 million hectares in 1985 to 12.8 million hectares by 2008/9. This deforestation, driven largely by oil palm and pulpwood plantations, has resulted in massive CO2 emissions from biomass loss and peatland degradation, particularly in Riau Province. The loss of habitat has led to significant population declines in the Sumatran elephant, orangutan, rhinoceros, and tiger, while 17 of 38 eco-floristic sectors are now categorized as threatened. The authors argue that protecting remaining peatland forests and restoring degraded areas are critical for meeting Indonesia's emission reduction targets.
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Document type: Report