Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam

This policy brief describes a study using a global-to-local modelling approach to analyze the interactions between socio-economic development, land use, food security, and climate change in Vietnam for the period 2010-2030. The study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model combined with a spatial land use model to project outcomes under three scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), High Climate Impact (HCI), and High Economic Growth (HEG).

• Economic development and structural transformation are projected to cause significant land use changes by 2030 across all scenarios. Production forest land and built-up land are expected to expand, primarily at the expense of shrub land, non-production forest, and paddy rice areas.
• Paddy rice areas are expected to decrease, particularly in the Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta, due to the expansion of built-up land. While some models suggest the 2030 rice land area may remain slightly above the 3.8 million hectare target for domestic and export needs, the authors note that inconsistencies in spatial data from MARD cast doubt on this conclusion.
• Climate change-induced flooding poses a severe risk to Vietnam's rice production and assets. The Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta are most susceptible, with potential impacts affecting up to 47% of paddy rice areas, 32% of other agricultural land, and 32% of built-up land, potentially jeopardizing over USD 400 billion in assets and 67% of the population.
• Under the High Economic Growth (HEG) scenario, economic pressure could lead to the loss of 47% of 'Special Use Forest' (protected areas including National parks and World Heritage sites) by 2030, decreasing the area from 19,740 km2 in 2007 to 10,529 km2. This deforestation would threaten biodiversity and increase greenhouse gas emissions.
• Climate change is projected to slow Vietnam's economic growth by 0.2 percentage points per year compared to the Business As Usual scenario, primarily through negative effects on agricultural yields and associated processed food and wood product sectors.
• There are significant policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and food security. For example, increasing forest areas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while reducing land for rice will negatively impact food security unless rice imports increase or yields rise.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2012). Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam. 2012. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam |date=September 2012 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2012land, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2012}, month = sep, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }