Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam

The document uses a global-to-local modelling approach to project land use changes in Vietnam up to 2030. It finds that economic growth and urbanisation will lead to a significant loss of paddy rice land and protected forests, while climate-induced flooding poses a severe threat to the Red River and Mekong River Deltas. The study highlights critical policy trade-offs between reducing greenhouse gas emissions through reforestation and maintaining national food security targets.

• Economic development and structural change are projected to cause significant land use shifts by 2030, with production forest and built-up land expanding at the expense of paddy rice, non-production forest, and shrub land.
• Paddy rice areas in the Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta are expected to decrease due to urban expansion. While some models suggest the 3.8 million hectare target for domestic consumption and export demand in 2020 might be met, the authors express doubt based on inconsistencies in official MARD statistics.
• Climate-induced flooding is a major threat to Vietnam's rice production, particularly in the low-lying Mekong River Delta and Red River Delta, potentially risking 67% of the population and over USD 400 billion in assets.
• Under a High Economic Growth scenario, economic pressure could lead to the loss of 47% of 'Special Use Forest' (protected parks, nature reserves, and World Heritage sites) by 2030, threatening biodiversity and increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
• There is a fundamental policy trade-off where efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by increasing forest area at the expense of rice land will negatively impact food security unless rice yields or imports increase.
• The contraction of paddy rice land between 2010 and 2030 is projected to lead to a 22% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, with a further 14-19% reduction possible through improved agricultural practices and restricting rice straw burning.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2012). Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam. 2012. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam |date=September 2012 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2012land, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Land Use, Food Security, and Climate Change in Vietnam}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2012}, month = sep, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Land-Use-Food-Security-Climate-in-Vietnam-Policy-Brief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }