Analyzing Vulnerability of the Belize Coastal Tourism Sector

The report identifies high-risk hotspots in Belize's coastal tourism sector, particularly Ambergris Caye, Caye Caulker, and the Central and South Central regions, which face significant threats from sea-level rise, thermal stress on coral reefs, and hurricane intensity. It highlights that 86% of tourism facilities are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, with potential GDP losses of over US $61 million from a 1m rise. While some regions like the Northern and Southern areas show medium vulnerability, the overall outlook suggests a high potential impact on the industry's future viability.

• The highest potential impact from climate change is projected for the popular tourism destinations of Ambergris Caye, Central Region, Caye Caulker, Turneffe Atoll, Lighthouse Reef Atoll, and South Central Region.
• Sea-level rise poses a severe threat to tourism infrastructure, with 86% of identified tourism facilities being highly vulnerable and 6% moderately vulnerable. Approximately 94% of accommodation facilities and 79% of tourist attractions are located in low-elevation areas.
• A sea-level rise of 1 meter is estimated to result in a GDP loss of over US $61,373,301.00 for Belize, primarily due to losses in the tourism sector.
• Projected sea-level rise scenarios indicate extreme beach area losses for specific sites: at a 1m rise, Caye Caulker would lose 96% of its beach area, Rocky Point 90%, and San Pedro 45%.
• Coral reefs are highly sensitive to rising sea surface temperatures; projections for 2090-2099 indicate the entire study area will be under increasing thermal stress, potentially leading to high coral mortality and reduced appeal for underwater recreation.
• Hurricane exposure is most significant for the cayes and coastal areas, including San Pedro on Ambergris Caye, Caye Caulker, and Placencia. The report notes that while frequency may not increase, the intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes has appeared to increase over the last 30 years.
• The Northern Region, South Northern Region, and Southern Region are identified as less vulnerable hotspots, suggesting they could be prioritized for future climate-compatible tourism development.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2014). Analyzing Vulnerability of the Belize Coastal Tourism Sector. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Vulnerability-assessment-report_final.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Analyzing Vulnerability of the Belize Coastal Tourism Sector. 2014. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Vulnerability-assessment-report_final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Analyzing Vulnerability of the Belize Coastal Tourism Sector |date=2014 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Vulnerability-assessment-report_final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2014analyzing, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Analyzing Vulnerability of the Belize Coastal Tourism Sector}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2014}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Vulnerability-assessment-report_final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }