The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas

The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed 18 strategic US military installations on the East and Gulf coasts, finding that most face significant risks from rising seas. Under a 'highest' scenario of sea level rise, some bases could lose between 75 and 95 percent of their land area by 2100. The report highlights that tidal flooding frequency will increase steeply, and storm surges will reach further inland and with greater depth. It emphasizes the need for high-resolution mapping and regional collaboration, noting that the vulnerability of surrounding low-income and minority communities can further compromise base operations.

• A sea level increase of approximately three feet would put 128 coastal Department of Defense (DOD) installations in the United States at risk, including naval installations valued at roughly $100 billion.
• Analysis of 18 installations shows that by midcentury, all but two could experience tidal flooding 100 times per year under a moderate sea level rise scenario.
• Under the 'highest' sea level rise scenario, four military installations are projected to lose between 75 and 95 percent of their land area by the end of the century. The most severely affected sites include Naval Air Station (NAS) Key West, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, NAS Oceana Dam Neck, and Marine Corps Recruit Depot (MCRD) on Parris Island.
• Future sea level rise will increase the severity of storm surges; for nearly 80 percent of analyzed installations, a Category 1 storm in 2100 (intermediate scenario) would cause flooding equivalent to a Category 2 storm today.
• The vulnerability of military bases is linked to the socioeconomic status of surrounding communities. Areas around bases such as NS Norfolk, Langley AFB, and MCRD Parris Island have high poverty rates and large African American and Latino populations, which may hinder recovery and complicate base operations.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2016). The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-key-executive-summary.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas. 2016. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-key-executive-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas |date=July 2016 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-key-executive-summary.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2016military, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-key-executive-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }