Search Climate Insights Directory

The report argues that a settlement of the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by creating economies of scale and opening access to the EU and Turkish markets. Using sectoral and total factor productivity (TFP) forecasting, the authors estimate that a solution could increase overall GDP by €11 billion to €17.4 billion over 20 years and raise GDP per capita by €6,800 to €11,000. Key growth sectors include wholesale and retail trade, tourism, construction, and professional services. The report also provides a framework for financing property compensation and emphasizes that closing the gender gap and establishing inclusive institutions are critical for maximizing the peace dividend.

The report examines the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to drive long-term GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while noting that immediate gains will come from manufacturing and technology leapfrogging. It details the AU's suspension of Sudan following the military junta's crackdown on protestors and warns of risks including civil war and external influence from Gulf powers. The document highlights a democratic setback in Africa, where incumbents use constitutional amendments and electoral law changes to maintain power, citing Benin as a key example. It reviews AU peace support operations (PSOs) in Somalia and Darfur, arguing that military action must be paired with political solutions and questioning the neutrality of deploying neighbouring states. Finally, it discusses the AU-UN partnership, emphasizing the need for UN Security Council reform and sustainable financing for AU-led operations.

The report identifies a total available energy services market in South Africa valued at approximately R125 billion by 2035, driven by rising electricity costs and falling technology prices. It highlights growth in rooftop solar PV, energy storage, and energy efficiency, while detailing the shift from a single-operator utility model to a distributed generation model. Key emerging opportunities include commercial off-the-shelf systems, project bundling, and building modernisation, supported by innovative finance mechanisms like PACE and a growing framework of municipal small-scale embedded generation (SSEG) regulations.

The policy brief examines the disproportionate dominance of South Africa within SADC and proposes a model of 'regional champions'—member states taking lead roles in specific sectors—to foster more equitable regional integration. It analyses current power dynamics using economic, military, and diplomatic metrics, identifying potential leaders in industrialisation, infrastructure, and security. The author suggests that South Africa can reduce its regional hegemony and the associated accusations of 'bullying' by supporting a more distributed leadership structure based on the comparative advantages of other member states.

The author contends that Africa's high fertility rates, particularly in countries like Tanzania, hinder economic growth by maintaining a high ratio of dependents to working-age people. By comparing Africa to the 'Asian Tiger' economies and the US, the text illustrates how a higher ratio of working-age persons per dependent drives income growth. The document suggests that improving water, sanitation, education, and contraceptive access could lead to a significantly larger economy and the elimination of poverty by 2063.

The document analyzes Zimbabwe's transition following the ousting of Robert Mugabe, focusing on the 2018 general elections. It argues that while Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF are likely to win, the legitimacy of the process is crucial for unlocking foreign investment and implementing economic reforms. The author suggests a 'pragmatic' economic approach, citing Cote d'Ivoire as a positive model for recovery through IMF engagement and market-friendly policies, while warning against the political instability seen in Egypt. Key priorities identified include addressing the $9 billion debt, stabilizing the currency, and re-engaging with Western partners and the IMF.

The report analyzes the aftermath of the ANC's 54th national conference, where Cyril Ramaphosa narrowly defeated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. It argues that while Ramaphosa's victory averted a major crisis, the party remains deeply divided between 'reformists' and 'traditionalists,' placing South Africa in a 'muddling along' scenario. Key challenges include the potential recall of Jacob Zuma, avoiding a credit rating downgrade by Moody's, and managing the Tripartite Alliance. The author predicts the ANC will retain national power in 2019 but may lose its majority in Gauteng province, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) emerging as a potential kingmaker there.

The report analyzes the shift in South African foreign policy from Thabo Mbeki's multilateralism and 'African Renaissance' to Jacob Zuma's focus on the BRICS grouping and bilateral relations. It argues that while BRICS membership was a pragmatic move, the Zuma era was marked by a decline in moral authority, domestic instability, and a disconnect between 'high politics' (pro-China/Russia) and 'low politics' (trade dominance of the EU and US). The author recommends that future leadership prioritize regional integration in Africa, develop regional value chains, and restore a commitment to a rules-based international system to drive domestic economic growth.

Tanzania possesses estimated natural gas reserves of roughly 60 TCF, with the potential to generate up to $6 billion in annual revenue. While the country has established formal governance frameworks, including the Petroleum Act and the Tanzania Extractive Industries Transparency and Accountability Act, the paper argues that the actual impact on development depends on the political will to combat 'grand corruption' and the ability of civil society to hold the ruling coalition accountable. The author warns that windfall rents could incentivize elite predation and weaken the state's incentive to maintain a broad tax base, potentially destabilizing the political equilibrium.

The strategy assesses the vulnerability of Estonia's energy and infrastructure systems to climate change, identifying the electricity distribution network and small ports as particularly susceptible. It outlines a comprehensive set of adaptation measures across technical support systems, buildings, transport, and energy resources, with an estimated total implementation cost of approximately 1.3 billion EUR for the 2017–2030 period. The plan emphasizes increasing energy independence through domestic renewable sources and improving the resilience of buildings and transport networks to temperature extremes and flooding.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies presents three plausible scenarios for South Africa's economic and political trajectory up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana' (continued underachievement), 'Mandela Magic' (high growth and vision), and 'Nation Divided' (political instability and populist decline). Using the International Futures forecasting system, the author analyzes how leadership choices, particularly within the African National Congress (ANC) and its alliance with COSATU, will impact GDP, employment, and social stability.

The report examines Kenya's efforts to mainstream climate change resilience into its development planning, highlighting the role of the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP). It details the institutional arrangements, such as the National Climate Change Council, and the use of the 'Threshold 21' model to forecast climate impacts on sectors like agriculture and energy. While political will is evident, the report notes a heavy reliance on unpredictable external donor funding and a need for a stronger legislative backbone to support policy frameworks.

The document argues that South Africa's current trade policy is too defensive and focused on domestic industrial concerns, leaving its exporters disadvantaged in fast-growing emerging markets. It identifies key global trends—including the shift of growth toward BRIC economies, the re-orientation of Chinese demand toward domestic consumption, and the rise of regional trade agreements—that necessitate a strategic shift. The authors propose diversifying exports, simplifying tariff structures to facilitate free trade agreements, establishing duty-free export zones to attract global supply chains, and deepening integration within Africa to leverage the region's growth.

The Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) is a tool that personalizes the economic consequences of climate change by comparing individual avoidable damages against the savings gained from not paying for emissions reductions. Unlike traditional climate-economic models that aggregate data by region and use temporal discounting, CIEL focuses on individual archetypes and reports results by decade through 2200. It utilizes data from the Stockholm Environment Institute's CRED model to show that while some individuals may be 'net gainers' in the short term, the vast majority will become 'net losers' as climate impacts intensify, particularly those with high vulnerability in terms of income, geography, and economic sector.

The document argues that achieving an annual improvement of nearly 2 percentage points in water and sanitation access across Africa would significantly reduce child malnutrition and infant mortality, increase GDP, and lower the probability of state failure. It identifies that such progress requires an additional public investment of nearly US $35 billion over 40 years, primarily targeting sanitation. The analysis highlights that success in this sector is driven by public policy, institutional management, and finance rather than technology, citing examples from Burkina Faso and Ethiopia.

The report estimates that the total investment for new housing, renovation, and infrastructure required for a reunited Cyprus would range from €6.3 billion to €8.6 billion, with an average of €7.2 billion over five years. Public sector spending is estimated at €4.3 billion, while private sector spending would be €2.9 billion. The authors identify various financing options, including EU grants, multilateral loans from the EIB and CEB, and borrowing from Greek, Turkish, and local Cypriot banks. Despite these sources, the report forecasts a funding shortfall of approximately €1 billion over the first five years, necessitating bilateral international assistance of €205 million per year. Economically, the reconstruction boom is projected to increase the real GDP growth rate by 3 percentage points, averaging 7.1% in the first five years, and create over 33,000 new jobs.

The Western Cape is currently caught in a middle-income trap, characterized by slow GDP per capita growth and significant inequality in access to basic services. The document evaluates three scenarios: an 'Inclusive Economy' focusing on basic services and education, a 'Vibrant Economy' focusing on high-level skills and business environment, and an 'Enterprising Cape' which combines both. The analysis finds that while isolated interventions provide some gains, a comprehensive approach is necessary to significantly raise GDP per capita, improve the Human Development Index (HDI), and accelerate the transition to high-income status by the mid-2030s.

The Union of Concerned Scientists developed the Climate 2030 Blueprint using a modified version of the National Energy Modeling System (UCS-NEMS) to evaluate a 'Blueprint case' against a 'Reference case'. The Blueprint case centers on a cap-and-trade program starting in 2011, designed to reduce U.S. emissions to 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 56 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This cap is supported by complementary policies in energy efficiency, electricity generation, and transportation to lower the overall cost of compliance. The analysis incorporates supplemental data on building and industrial efficiency from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy and biomass supply curves from the University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.