The day after II

The report estimates that the total investment for new housing, renovation, and infrastructure required for a reunited Cyprus would range from €6.3 billion to €8.6 billion, with an average of €7.2 billion over five years. Public sector spending is estimated at €4.3 billion, while private sector spending would be €2.9 billion. The authors identify various financing options, including EU grants, multilateral loans from the EIB and CEB, and borrowing from Greek, Turkish, and local Cypriot banks. Despite these sources, the report forecasts a funding shortfall of approximately €1 billion over the first five years, necessitating bilateral international assistance of €205 million per year. Economically, the reconstruction boom is projected to increase the real GDP growth rate by 3 percentage points, averaging 7.1% in the first five years, and create over 33,000 new jobs.

• Total investment for new housing, renovation, and infrastructure resulting from a settlement is estimated to range between €6.3 billion and €8.6 billion, with an average of €7.2 billion over five years. Of this, the public sector would spend €4.3 billion and the private sector €2.9 billion.
• The report identifies a funding shortfall of just over €1 billion for the first five years, suggesting that a reunited Cyprus would require €205 million per year in bilateral assistance from international donors.
• Redefining Cyprus as two or more statistical regions for EU funding purposes could allow the country to access Convergence objective financing, potentially providing an additional €600 million in grants.
• A settlement is projected to raise the real GDP growth rate by 3 percentage points, reaching an average of 7.1% in the first five years, and create more than 33,000 jobs during that period.
• The reconstruction of Varosha (the fenced area of Famagusta) is estimated to require between €1.48 billion (if restoration is chosen) and €1.84 billion (if rebuilding is chosen). Non-housing infrastructure in Varosha alone is estimated at €1.1 billion to €1.3 billion.
• Property compensation is estimated at a median value of €14.9 billion (rounded to €15 billion) if paid entirely via bonds. If the government assumes the interest payments at a rate of 6% per year, this would cost €900 million annually.
• Local Cypriot commercial banks are identified as having the greatest lending capacity due to being highly capitalized, with a potential annual lending capacity of €500 million to the government.
• The report estimates that the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) could collectively lend €2 billion over the first five years, or €400 million per year.

APA

ANTONIADOU, P., OĞUZ, K. Ö., & MULLEN, F. (2009). The day after II. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e5af60ec-f351-434d-b811-6ba427dbc342/Paper 2009-1 The day after II.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

ANTONIADOU, PRAXOULA, KYRIACOU ÖZLEM OĞUZ, and FIONA MULLEN. The day after II. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2009. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e5af60ec-f351-434d-b811-6ba427dbc342/Paper 2009-1 The day after II.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ANTONIADOU |first1=PRAXOULA |last2=OĞUZ |first2=KYRIACOU ÖZLEM |last3=MULLEN |first3=FIONA |title=The day after II |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2009 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e5af60ec-f351-434d-b811-6ba427dbc342/Paper 2009-1 The day after II.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{antoniadou2009day, author = {ANTONIADOU, PRAXOULA and OĞUZ, KYRIACOU ÖZLEM and MULLEN, FIONA}, title = {{The day after II}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2009}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e5af60ec-f351-434d-b811-6ba427dbc342/Paper 2009-1 The day after II.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }