The CIEL Backgrounder: Understanding the Climate Impact Equity Lens

The Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) is a tool that personalizes the economic consequences of climate change by comparing individual avoidable damages against the savings gained from not paying for emissions reductions. Unlike traditional climate-economic models that aggregate data by region and use temporal discounting, CIEL focuses on individual archetypes and reports results by decade through 2200. It utilizes data from the Stockholm Environment Institute's CRED model to show that while some individuals may be 'net gainers' in the short term, the vast majority will become 'net losers' as climate impacts intensify, particularly those with high vulnerability in terms of income, geography, and economic sector.

• CIEL identifies two types of individuals based on the failure to cut emissions: 'net gainers', for whom the savings from avoided emissions reduction costs exceed climate damages, and 'net losers', for whom climate damages are larger than any gains from the fossil fuel economy.
• The tool reveals a temporal shift in outcomes: while many are net gainers today, by approximately 2075, it becomes difficult to find characteristics that result in net gains. By 2150, even individuals with average regional income and no other specific vulnerabilities are projected to suffer net losses.
• Net losses are primarily driven by two factors: higher vulnerability to climate damages (linked to income source, proximity to sea level, or water scarcity) and the regional variation in the cost of reducing emissions, which is higher as a share of income for poorer individuals.
• CIEL differs from standard climate-economic models by avoiding regional aggregation and temporal discounting. It presents costs and damages for each decade separately until 2200 to avoid the 'moral judgment' inherent in discounting future generations' losses.
• The tool is based on the CRED model, which assumes a 'no aid' scenario to demonstrate the full impact on low-income countries if high-income countries fail to provide economic assistance for low-carbon development.
• In a 'do-nothing' future, CIEL projects that by 2100, temperatures will be nearly 4°C higher than pre-industrial times, with climate damages consuming about one-sixth of global economic output. By 2200, temperatures could top 7°C, with three-fourths of global output lost to damages.

APA

Stanton, E. A., & Bueno, R. (2011). The CIEL Backgrounder: Understanding the Climate Impact Equity Lens. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Paper-Stanton-TheCIELbackgrounder-2011.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A., and Ramón Bueno. The CIEL Backgrounder: Understanding the Climate Impact Equity Lens. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Paper-Stanton-TheCIELbackgrounder-2011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |last2=Bueno |first2=Ramón |title=The CIEL Backgrounder: Understanding the Climate Impact Equity Lens |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Paper-Stanton-TheCIELbackgrounder-2011.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2011ciel, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Bueno, Ramón}, title = {{The CIEL Backgrounder: Understanding the Climate Impact Equity Lens}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Paper-Stanton-TheCIELbackgrounder-2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }