Microsoft Word - AF.Futures.PolBrief1[final].docx

This policy brief, produced by the Institute for Security Studies as part of the African Futures Project, uses the International Futures (IFs) model to analyze the impact of improving water and sanitation access across Africa. It argues that an aggressive annual improvement rate of just under 2 percentage points could significantly reduce child malnutrition and infant mortality, increase GDP, and lower the probability of state failure by 2050.

• An aggressive annual improvement in water and sanitation access of just under 2 percentage points across Africa is projected to reduce the number of undernourished children by 18 million by 2030, increase the continent's GDP by US $75 billion by 2040, and lift 17 million people out of poverty (defined as living on less than US $1.25 a day) by 2050.
• The public cost to achieve this 2 percentage point annual improvement is estimated at nearly US $35 billion over 40 years, which is in addition to a base case investment of US $110 billion required to maintain and build basic infrastructure. The majority of this additional investment should be directed toward safe sanitation.
• Improving water and sanitation access is projected to reduce infant mortality by 20% over the base case by 2030, equating to roughly nine fewer deaths per 1,000 live births. The most significant reductions are expected in Chad, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
• By 2050, the improved access scenario is projected to increase African GDP by 3% over the base case and 6% over the pessimistic scenario. The income difference between the base and improved cases in 2050 is estimated at over US $200 billion.
• There is a strong correlation between water/sanitation access and political stability; the probability of state failure in 2030 is projected to be 40% higher if no improvements are made compared to a scenario of rapid improvement. The largest increases in failure probability under a stagnant scenario are seen in Somalia, Burundi, Niger, and Ethiopia.
• Analysis of high-performing countries suggests that success in water and sanitation delivery is driven by public policy environments, institutional management, finance, and social structure rather than technology or geography. Key success factors include strictly defined institutional arrangements, clear policy frameworks, and substantial donor funding.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). Microsoft Word - AF.Futures.PolBrief1[final].docx. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No1_25Aug2011.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Microsoft Word - AF.Futures.PolBrief1[final].docx. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No1_25Aug2011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Microsoft Word - AF.Futures.PolBrief1[final].docx |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No1_25Aug2011.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndmicrosoft, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Microsoft Word - AF.Futures.PolBrief1[final].docx}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No1_25Aug2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }