Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact

The author contends that Africa's high fertility rates, particularly in countries like Tanzania, hinder economic growth by maintaining a high ratio of dependents to working-age people. By comparing Africa to the 'Asian Tiger' economies and the US, the text illustrates how a higher ratio of working-age persons per dependent drives income growth. The document suggests that improving water, sanitation, education, and contraceptive access could lead to a significantly larger economy and the elimination of poverty by 2063.

• A 'demographic dividend' occurs when the working-age population (ages 15-64) is significantly larger than the dependent population, a ratio that can explain 33% to 50% of the average annual economic growth rate over long periods.
• Africa's current average fertility rate is 4.5 children per woman, compared to a global average of nearly two. In Tanzania, the rate is five, which the author argues precludes reasonable income growth.
• Africa's working-age to dependent ratio is currently around 1.3 and is projected to reach 1.4 by 2030 and peak at approximately two in 2070, with solid economic growth expected from 2050 as the ratio exceeds 1.7.
• A simulated scenario involving improved water and sanitation, women's empowerment, reduced education gender gaps, and increased contraceptive use (reducing children per woman by two) could result in 418 million fewer people by 2063 and an economy US$1.7 trillion larger than the baseline.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2018). Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 September 2018 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{cilliers2018africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact}}, publisher = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }