Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact

The document argues that Africa's economic growth is hindered by high fertility rates, which create a high dependency ratio. It posits that reducing fertility through family planning and education is essential to achieving a 'demographic dividend'—a state where the working-age population significantly outweighs dependents—which previously drove rapid growth in East Asia and sustained growth in the US.

• A 'demographic dividend' occurs when a country's working-age population (ages 15-64) is significantly larger than its dependent population of children and elderly. This ratio is a critical driver of economic growth, accounting for one third to one half of the average annual growth rate over long periods.
• Africa currently has an average fertility rate of 4.5 children per woman, compared to a global average of nearly two. In Tanzania, the rate is five. High fertility rates in Tanzania, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Angola, and Uganda are identified as barriers to reasonable income growth.
• Africa's working-age to dependent ratio is currently around 1.3. It is projected to reach 1.4 by 2030 and peak at approximately two in 2070, with solid economic growth likely to begin from 2050 when the ratio exceeds 1.7.
• Using the International Futures forecasting system, it is estimated that Africa's peak demographic dividend growth rate is unlikely to average 5% per year due to a low working-age to dependent ratio. However, a scenario involving improved water, sanitation, education, and contraceptive use (reducing children per woman by two) could result in 418 million fewer people by 2063 and an economy US$1.7 trillion larger.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2018). Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 September 2018 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{cilliers2018africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact}}, publisher = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africas-demographic-challenge-is-a-fact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }