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The report argues that transitioning to a low-carbon economy can increase global financial capacity rather than deplete it. For the electricity sector, the transition could provide a net benefit of $1.8 trillion by 2035, as significant operating savings from avoided fossil fuel extraction and transport outweigh higher capital costs and stranded assets. In the transport sector, the impact is more policy-dependent, ranging from a $2.5 trillion cost to a $3.5 trillion benefit, depending on whether the transition is driven by taxes or innovation. The authors emphasize that reducing the cost of capital for low-carbon infrastructure through regulatory and financial reforms is critical to maximizing these benefits.

The report estimates that a transition to a low-carbon economy could put nearly $25 trillion of fossil fuel asset value at risk, with approximately 80% of this risk borne by governments rather than private investors. The analysis highlights that oil represents the majority of value at risk (close to 75%), while coal offers the highest emissions reduction potential with relatively low stranding risk (12%). The document argues that the net economic impact depends heavily on policy: a purely tax-based approach to reducing oil demand could cost the global economy $3 trillion, whereas an innovation-led transition could yield a net benefit of $7 trillion. It recommends prioritizing the phase-out of coal and utilizing financial mechanisms to lower the cost of renewable energy in emerging markets.

The paper advocates for the use of strategic foresight and integrated policy analysis to help African governments navigate complex development trade-offs and set realistic targets. It highlights the International Futures (IFs) model as a tool for scenario analysis and evidence-based planning, using it to critique the feasibility of certain Agenda 2063 goals, such as the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 and the 'silencing the guns' initiative by 2020. The author emphasizes that such foresight is dependent on improving the quality and availability of reliable data across the continent.

The report argues that implementing cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy measures could halve the EU's net natural gas imports and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 49% relative to 1990 levels by 2030. It identifies the buildings sector as having the highest potential for savings, followed by energy production and industry, while noting that domestic production, including shale gas, is unlikely to increase substantially.

The paper evaluates pathways to decarbonise the UK transport sector by 2050, finding that while road and rail can reach zero CO2 emissions, aviation and shipping remain significant barriers.

South Africa is over-exploiting its freshwater resources, with a projected widening gap between supply and demand by 2035. The authors find that the National Water Resource Strategy 2013 (NWRS2) lacks the aggressive measures needed to close this gap, which is driven by urban migration, industrial growth, and agricultural expansion. Proposed solutions include significant reductions in municipal non-revenue water, increased wastewater reuse, and expanded groundwater extraction.

The briefing examines the uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by the US Congress. It outlines three scenarios: a full renewal for 40 eligible countries, a renewal that excludes South Africa, and a transition to a reciprocal trade agreement similar to EU Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). The author argues that a full renewal, extended for 10 to 15 years and coupled with infrastructure investment and export diversification, is the most beneficial path for both Africa and the United States.

The research finds that most African countries are unlikely to meet the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors argue for a more achievable continental goal of reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 and below 3% by 2063. The paper emphasizes that poverty reduction requires a combination of pro-poor economic growth, social assistance, human development, and progressive social change, noting that policies must be tailored to individual country contexts due to varying initial conditions and poverty gaps.

The author contends that energy efficiency is a disruptive technology that, through 'integrative design,' can provide energy services more cheaply than supply-side production. By optimizing entire systems rather than individual components, the author claims significant reductions in energy use are possible in buildings, industrial processes, and transport. A central focus is placed on the automotive sector, where 'ultralighting' and electrification could realistically eliminate US motor-fuel demand by 2050. The text warns that oil and gas companies face existential risks as demand-side innovations make hydrocarbons uncompetitive, suggesting these firms pivot toward efficiency and renewable energy investments.

The document assesses the impact of implementing the SSP2 scenario in the GCAM model, finding that a business-as-usual approach leads to a temperature increase of nearly 5ºC by 2095. It further evaluates a stabilization policy (RCP2.6) using a global carbon tax, which achieves negative emissions by 2100 through massive deployment of nuclear power, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and afforestation, though it highlights tensions between economic efficiency and regional equity.

The report analyzes three scenarios for Estonia's transport sector: 'Non-intervening' (BAU), 'Low-intervention' (VS), and 'Knowledge-based' (EE). The BAU scenario predicts a nearly 60% increase in energy consumption by 2030 compared to 2012 levels. The EE scenario, which employs systemic policies including road user charges and land-use planning, aims to stop energy consumption growth, potentially achieving a 2% reduction by 2030. The analysis highlights that private and corporate spending on vehicle imports, maintenance, and fuel (approximately 1.5-1.7 billion EUR annually) far exceeds public infrastructure and passenger transport spending (approximately 400 million EUR annually). Environmentally, the EE scenario is the only one to project a decrease in CO2 equivalent emissions, forecasting a 36% reduction by 2030 compared to 2012.

The document analyzes four potential political pathways for South Africa: 'Bafana Bafana' (moderate underachievement), 'The Future is ANC' (continued dominance), 'The Rise of Multiparty Democracy' (coalition governance), and 'A Nation Divided' (populist decline). It identifies the leadership of the ANC, splits within COSATU, rising voter apathy among 'born frees', and the DA's ability to attract black voters as decisive factors. The author recommends electoral reforms, including a mixed-member proportional system and mandatory voting, to address a lack of political accountability.

The report analyzes Mongolia's energy transition using four scenarios: a coal-heavy reference case, a 'recent plans' case, an 'expanded green energy' case, and a 'shift in energy export' case. It finds that aggressive energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment could halve territorial GHG emissions by 2035 and reduce overall energy demand by 32% compared to the reference scenario. The study highlights the potential for Mongolia to shift from exporting coal to exporting renewable electricity to Northeast Asia, which would significantly reduce extraction-based emissions and mitigate the economic risk of 'carbon entanglement'.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies presents three plausible scenarios for South Africa's economic and political trajectory up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana' (continued underachievement), 'Mandela Magic' (high growth and vision), and 'Nation Divided' (political instability and populist decline). Using the International Futures forecasting system, the author analyzes how leadership choices, particularly within the African National Congress (ANC) and its alliance with COSATU, will impact GDP, employment, and social stability.

The document argues that climate, energy, water, and land-use systems are closely integrated, yet policy-making often relies on disconnected assessments. Using Mauritius as a case study, the paper compares energy system assessments conducted in isolation against those using an integrated approach to scenarios extending to 2030. It highlights that an integrated approach reveals critical dynamics—such as the impact of rainfall reductions and land-use changes on ethanol generation—that are overlooked in separate assessments.

The report proposes an 'accelerated scenario' for Fort Collins to reach an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, twenty years ahead of its original 2050 target. This path involves reducing building energy use by 31%, achieving a carbon-neutral electricity system, and reducing transportation energy use by 48%. The analysis indicates that while this requires higher upfront capital, it would result in a net present value benefit of $260 million by 2030 and $2.0 billion by 2050 compared to business-as-usual. Key strategies include the deployment of distributed solar PV, increased wind capacity, smart growth urban planning, and the adoption of electric vehicles.

The roadmap proposes two visions for Colombia's bioenergy sector: one focusing on new technologies (biomethane and biomass-based power/CHP) and another combining these with the expansion of first-generation biofuels. Modeling indicates that while both scenarios increase the bioenergy share in power and gas supply, they cannot prevent an overall decline in bioenergy's share of primary energy demand due to rapid GDP growth and urbanization. The most effective emissions reductions come from power generation and CHP, particularly by avoiding methane release from landfills and animal waste. Scenario I is identified as the most efficient in terms of emissions reduction per additional hectare of land, whereas Scenario II's ambitious biofuel targets would require significant imports as domestic land is insufficient.

The document examines the food-energy-water nexus in Ethiopia's Lake Tana and Beles River basins, using the SEI nexus toolkit (WEAP-LEAP) to model three development scenarios. It finds that agricultural intensification and energy transitions are interdependent and potentially competitive, noting that Ethiopia has reached a "biomass ceiling" where demand for fuel, food, and fodder equals primary productivity. The analysis highlights trade-offs between hydropower production and maintaining critical water levels in Lake Tana, suggesting that a coordinated nexus approach is essential to meet the targets of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) and the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) without compromising environmental sustainability.

The document details the application of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system to model the La Vieja river basin, covering an area of approximately 2,880 km2 across the departments of Quindío, Valle del Cauca, and Risaralda. The model incorporates 37 watercourses, 16 human consumption demands, and 4 hydroelectric demands. By utilizing a soil moisture rain-runoff method and calibrating parameters such as runoff resistance and hydraulic conductivity, the project established a framework to evaluate 1,728 scenarios involving climate variability and demographic changes. This process aims to support regional environmental authorities in formulating adaptation strategies for water resource planning through 2050.

The report analyzes Estonia's transport energy consumption from 2000–2012, noting a 33% increase driven primarily by road transport, which accounts for approximately 90% of the sector's energy use. It evaluates 24 measures across four categories: vehicle fuel efficiency, sustainable modes of transport, land-use planning, and fiscal measures. Key findings suggest that the highest energy-saving potential lies in shifting to more efficient conventional vehicles (A-B energy classes) and implementing smart fiscal tools like kilometer-based road charges and a Tallinn congestion charge. The report concludes that while electric vehicles have marginal impact in the short term, systemic changes in urban planning and public transport are essential for long-term demand management.