Forecasting South African election results

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes potential electoral outcomes and political scenarios for South Africa for the period 2014 to 2029. It explores four primary pathways—'Bafana Bafana', 'The Future is ANC', 'The Rise of Multiparty Democracy', and 'A Nation Divided'—evaluating how factors such as ANC leadership, trade union splits (specifically NUMSA and COSATU), and youth voter apathy influence economic growth and poverty levels.

• The author identifies four decisive factors that will shape South Africa's political trajectory: the leadership and role of the African National Congress (ANC), political and ideological splits within the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), rising voter apathy, and the ability of opposition parties like the Democratic Alliance (DA) to attract young black voters.
• The 'Bafana Bafana' scenario describes a state of perennial underachievement characterized by moderate economic growth averaging 3.8 per cent per year up to 2030, a consistent trade deficit, and a declining manufacturing sector. In this scenario, the ANC maintains a slow decline in support, holding 54 per cent by 2029 and 216 seats in the national assembly.
• The 'A Nation Divided' scenario forecasts a significant economic decline, with GDP being 18 per cent smaller than in the 'Bafana Bafana' scenario. This pathway is triggered by a poor ANC showing in 2014, leading to populist policies, junk credit status by 2017, and increased social violence and racial conflict.
• The 'Mandela Magic' outcome is achievable through two pathways: 'The Future is ANC' (where the party retains its majority) or 'The Rise of Multiparty Democracy' (where the ANC dips below 50 per cent support by 2024). Both scenarios envision a GDP 23 per cent larger by 2030 than the 'Bafana Bafana' scenario, driven by a social compact to implement the National Development Plan (NDP).
• Voter apathy is a critical concern, with data showing that the number of eligible voters who chose not to vote rose from 14 per cent in 1994 to 40 per cent in 2009. For the May 2014 elections, only 5.5 million potential voters aged 18 to 29 registered, and only 21 per cent of those aged 18 and 19 registered.
• To address political accountability and voter apathy, the document recommends reforming the party-list system toward a mixed-member proportional system based on the 2003 Van Zyl Slabbert commission, introducing mandatory voting with penalties for non-voters, and adding a 'none-of-the-above' option to ballots.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2014). Forecasting South African election results. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief53April14.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Forecasting South African election results. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief53April14.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Forecasting South African election results |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=April 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief53April14.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2014forecasting, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Forecasting South African election results}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief53April14.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }