New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model

The document assesses the impact of implementing the SSP2 scenario in the GCAM model, finding that a business-as-usual approach leads to a temperature increase of nearly 5ºC by 2095. It further evaluates a stabilization policy (RCP2.6) using a global carbon tax, which achieves negative emissions by 2100 through massive deployment of nuclear power, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and afforestation, though it highlights tensions between economic efficiency and regional equity.

• In the GCAM-SSP2 baseline scenario, global temperatures are projected to surpass the 2ºC threshold by 2040 and increase to almost 5ºC by 2095, with CO2 concentrations exceeding 1155 ppm and radiative forcing reaching 9.5 W/m2.
• Under the RCP2.6 policy scenario, a global carbon tax starting in 2020 at 55 2011$/tCO2 and rising to 2,100 $/tCO2 by 2095 enables the stabilization of temperature below 1.5ºC relative to 1990.
• Achieving the RCP2.6 target requires a massive shift in the energy mix by 2095, with nuclear power providing over 50% of electricity and primary energy consumption consisting of 34% nuclear, 33% biomass, and 20% other renewables.
• The RCP2.6 policy achieves negative emissions by the end of the century through the large-scale deployment of biomass combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and an initial massive afforestation effort of almost 1,000 Mha between 2020 and 2025.
• Mitigation costs for the RCP2.6 scenario are estimated to be below 2% of global GDP, but there is a regional disparity where emergent and in-development regions like the Former Soviet Union and Middle East face higher costs, exceeding 3% of GDP by 2095.
• The authors argue that GCAM's results may be overly optimistic regarding nuclear and fossil fuel costs, noting that the model uses outdated data that does not account for the 2011 Fukushima accident or the actual cost increases in nuclear power.
• The model's fossil fuel supply curves are identified as outdated, particularly for oil, where GCAM projects prices below $60 per barrel throughout the century, contradicting current market trends for unconventional fuels.

APA

Capellán-Pérez, I., González-Eguino, M., Arto, I., Ansuategi, A., Dhavala, K., Patel, P., & Markandya, A. (2014). New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201408270933032121154692.pdf

Chicago

Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Mikel González-Eguino, Iñaki Arto, Alberto Ansuategi, Kishore Dhavala, Pralit Patel, and Anil Markandya. New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2014. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201408270933032121154692.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{capellnprez2014new, author = {Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo and González-Eguino, Mikel and Arto, Iñaki and Ansuategi, Alberto and Dhavala, Kishore and Patel, Pralit and Markandya, Anil}, title = {{New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2014}, month = jul, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201408270933032121154692.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }