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The research argues that government models for offshore oil and gas leasing often underestimate climate impacts by assuming continued fossil fuel reliance and ignoring climate initiatives. Using the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s Market Simulation Model, the authors demonstrate that accounting for increased substitution between fossil fuels and renewables leads to more elastic energy demand and significantly higher projected net climate effects from leasing policies.

The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7) analyzes energy demand, supply, and electricity generation across the ASEAN region through four scenarios: Baseline, AMS Targets (ATS), APAEC Targets (APS), and Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO). It finds that without policy intervention, energy demand will triple by 2050 and fossil fuels will continue to dominate. However, implementing national and regional policies can significantly reduce total final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The report emphasizes the need for increased energy efficiency, higher renewable energy penetration, and regional grid interconnection to ensure energy security and sustainability.

The research finds a positive correlation between energy and resource misallocation in Brazilian industry, suggesting that improving the allocation of resources to the most productive firms would simultaneously increase aggregate productivity and energy efficiency. Using data from 2007 to 2015, the authors demonstrate that resource misallocation increased over this period, acting as the primary barrier to productivity growth. While the potential aggregate output gains from fully equalizing revenue productivity are substantial, ranging from 77.9% to 96.2%, the analysis reveals that capital distortions are significantly more impactful than electricity distortions in generating these losses. The study concludes that broad industrial policies targeting these binding distortions are more effective for improving aggregate energy efficiency than firm-level initiatives.

The paper analyzes reference and alternative scenarios for China's CO2 emissions, finding that while reference paths project emissions to double by 2050, alternative paths suggest a peak around 2030. It identifies GDP growth, energy intensity, and the energy mix as primary drivers, arguing that deep decarbonization through industrial restructuring and non-fossil fuel expansion is necessary to meet climate goals.

The document assesses the impact of implementing the SSP2 scenario in the GCAM model, finding that a business-as-usual approach leads to a temperature increase of nearly 5ºC by 2095. It further evaluates a stabilization policy (RCP2.6) using a global carbon tax, which achieves negative emissions by 2100 through massive deployment of nuclear power, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and afforestation, though it highlights tensions between economic efficiency and regional equity.

The document evaluates the potential for carbon leakage in South Korea as it implements the Korean emission trading scheme (KETS). Using methodology from the EU ETS Directive, the analysis finds that several manufacturing sectors face a moderate to high risk of leakage, primarily driven by high trade intensity rather than additional production costs. The report highlights that while energy efficiency and fuel switching have historically reduced emissions intensity, the recovery of emission-intensive industries like steel and cement has increased structural risks. It recommends that the South Korean government consider mitigation policies such as free allowances, border adjustments, or import taxes to prevent the displacement of emissions to regions with less stringent climate policies.