Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends and Mitigation Potential

The paper analyzes reference and alternative scenarios for China's CO2 emissions, finding that while reference paths project emissions to double by 2050, alternative paths suggest a peak around 2030. It identifies GDP growth, energy intensity, and the energy mix as primary drivers, arguing that deep decarbonization through industrial restructuring and non-fossil fuel expansion is necessary to meet climate goals.

• Reference scenarios, which include 'no new policy' and 'current policy' projections, indicate that China's CO2 emissions will continue to rise through 2030, with projections ranging from a 21 percent to a 119 percent increase relative to 2010 levels.
• Alternative scenarios, which assume more aggressive policies and breakthrough technologies, suggest a median emissions peak around 2030, with a median projected increase of 38 percent over 2010 levels by that year.
• The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) scenario illustrates a path where energy-related CO2 emissions peak around 2030 at 11,477 Mt CO2 and then decline significantly to 5,173 Mt CO2 by 2050.
• Under the DDPP scenario, China's primary energy mix would shift from 71 percent coal in 2010 to 27 percent in 2050, while non-fossil fuels would increase from 7.9 percent to 42 percent.
• Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is identified as a critical technology for deep decarbonization; the DDPP scenario assumes CCUS would capture 2,737 Mt CO2 by 2050, reducing total emissions by one third.
• GDP growth is the most significant source of uncertainty in emissions projections; a 1 percent increase in the annual average GDP growth rate (with energy intensity declining by the same amount) could increase 2020 CO2 emissions by 750 Million Tons.
• China's high energy intensity is attributed primarily to its economic structure, where industry accounts for over 40 percent of GDP and energy-intensive raw-materials industry consumes 50 percent of end-use energy.
• To achieve an emissions peak around 2030, the annual decline rate of CO2 intensity of GDP must be higher than the annual growth rate of GDP.
• The authors recommend that China shift its policy focus from carbon-intensity control to a 'dual control' system that targets both carbon intensity and total CO2 emissions.

APA

Liu, Q., Chen, Y., Tian, C., Zheng, X., Teng, F., Gu, A., Yang, X., Wang, X., Matthews, E., & Song, R. (2015). Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends and Mitigation Potential. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Peaking_Emissions_v4.pdf

Chicago

Liu, Qiang, Yi Chen, Chuan Tian, Xiaoqi Zheng, Fei Teng, Alun Gu, Xi Yang, et al. Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends and Mitigation Potential. World Resources Institute, 2015. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Peaking_Emissions_v4.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Liu |first1=Qiang |last2=Chen |first2=Yi |last3=Tian |first3=Chuan |last4=Zheng |first4=Xiaoqi |last5=Teng |first5=Fei |last6=Gu |first6=Alun |last7=Yang |first7=Xi |last8=Wang |first8=Xin |last9=Matthews |first9=Emily |display-authors=etal |title=Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends and Mitigation Potential |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=September 2015 |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Peaking_Emissions_v4.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{liu2015peaking, author = {Liu, Qiang and Chen, Yi and Tian, Chuan and Zheng, Xiaoqi and Teng, Fei and Gu, Alun and Yang, Xi and Wang, Xin and Matthews, Emily and Song, Ranping}, title = {{Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends and Mitigation Potential}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2015}, month = sep, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Peaking_Emissions_v4.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }