The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050

The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7) analyzes energy demand, supply, and electricity generation across the ASEAN region through four scenarios: Baseline, AMS Targets (ATS), APAEC Targets (APS), and Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO). It finds that without policy intervention, energy demand will triple by 2050 and fossil fuels will continue to dominate. However, implementing national and regional policies can significantly reduce total final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The report emphasizes the need for increased energy efficiency, higher renewable energy penetration, and regional grid interconnection to ensure energy security and sustainability.

• Under the Baseline Scenario, regional energy demand is projected to triple by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) reaching 1,281.7 Mtoe.
• Fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant energy source in the Baseline Scenario, with oil accounting for 47.4% of TFEC, electricity for 20.3%, coal for 14.5%, and bioenergy for 9.2% by 2050.
• The region is projected to become a net importer of natural gas by 2025 and coal by 2039 if no significant new discoveries or infrastructure additions occur.
• Implementing regional policies in the APAEC Target Scenario (APS) could reduce TFEC by 53.7% by 2050 compared to the Baseline Scenario.
• ASEAN is projected to miss its regional target of 23% renewable energy (RE) in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) by 2025, with the AMS Target Scenario (ATS) predicting only 17.5%, leaving a 5.5% gap.
• The Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario suggests a power system that costs USD 174.7 billion less than the APS over the 2021-2050 period, though it results in a 5.3% lower share of RE in TPES by 2050.
• Energy intensity reduction is projected to reach 29.2% by 2025 under ATS, which falls short of the 32% regional target set by APAEC.
• The APS scenario is projected to create up to 5.5 million new jobs by 2050, with 67% of these in hydropower and 10% in geothermal construction, operation, and maintenance.
• Biofuel production in the APS scenario would require approximately 5.6 million hectares of land for oil palm and 3.2 million hectares for sugar cane.
• The LCO Scenario identifies several cost-effective interconnection projects to be operational by 2025, including lines between Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra, Sarawak and Brunei Darussalam, Lao PDR and Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar, and Thailand and Cambodia.
• Universal electrification in ASEAN is projected to be achieved by 2040 under the ATS and APS scenarios, with Cambodia being the final country to reach this target.
• Clean cooking access is projected to reach only 90.28% by 2050 under the APS scenario, failing to meet the SDG7 target of 100% by 2030.
• The social cost of energy in 2050 is projected to be USD 5,457 billion in the Baseline Scenario, but could be reduced to USD 2,358 billion under the APS scenario.
• The LCO Scenario introduces nuclear energy into the region's power mix, with 5.2 GW deployed by 2050.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2022). The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050. https://leap.sei.org/documents/AEO7.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050. 2022. https://leap.sei.org/documents/AEO7.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050 |date=October 2022 |url=https://leap.sei.org/documents/AEO7.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute20227th, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/AEO7.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }