Three scenarios for the future of AGOA

The briefing examines the uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by the US Congress. It outlines three scenarios: a full renewal for 40 eligible countries, a renewal that excludes South Africa, and a transition to a reciprocal trade agreement similar to EU Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). The author argues that a full renewal, extended for 10 to 15 years and coupled with infrastructure investment and export diversification, is the most beneficial path for both Africa and the United States.

• A full renewal of AGOA would maintain duty-free access to the US market for 40 eligible countries across 1800 tariff lines, protecting previous gains such as a 78 percent increase in overall trade and a 514 percent increase in automotive exports.
• AGOA's effectiveness is currently limited by a lack of export diversification, as energy accounts for 88 percent of total exports to the US from eligible countries, excluding South Africa. Additionally, half of the eligible countries export less than US $1 million to the US.
• To improve the impact of a renewal, the author recommends extending the agreement for 10 to 15 years, expanding technical assistance like the US Trade Hubs programme, and addressing the infrastructure gap through initiatives such as the Power Africa plan.
• Removing South Africa from AGOA would be counter-productive because smaller countries, such as Namibia, rely on South Africa's manufacturing infrastructure to enter value chains, such as supplying leather for car seats.
• The document warns against transforming AGOA into a reciprocal two-way trade agreement similar to the EU's Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), suggesting that such a move would be misguided and could strain US-Africa relations while competitors like China, India, and Japan increase their engagement.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2014). Three scenarios for the future of AGOA. https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Three scenarios for the future of AGOA. 2014. https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Three scenarios for the future of AGOA |date=4 August 2014 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2014three, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Three scenarios for the future of AGOA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2014}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }