Three scenarios for the future of AGOA

This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs analyzes three potential scenarios for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), emphasizing the need for investment certainty and the diversification of African exports beyond energy.

• The most probable outcome is a full renewal of AGOA, which would maintain duty-free access to the US market for 40 eligible countries across 1800 tariff lines. This renewal would protect previous gains, including a 514 percent increase in automotive exports and a 78 percent overall increase in trade.
• To maximize the benefits of a renewal, the author argues that AGOA should be extended for 10 to 15 years to provide investor certainty, expand technical assistance like the US Trade Hubs programme, and address infrastructure gaps through initiatives such as the Power Africa plan. This is necessary because energy currently accounts for 88 percent of total exports to the US (excluding South Africa), and half of eligible countries export less than US $1 million to the US.
• There is a risk that South Africa could be removed from AGOA preferences due to its status as a middle-income country and pressure from US pork, poultry, and beef lobby groups. The document asserts that removing South Africa would be counter-productive, as smaller nations like Namibia rely on South Africa's manufacturing infrastructure to enter value chains, such as supplying leather for car seats.
• A third scenario involves transforming AGOA from a unilateral preference into a two-way trade agreement similar to the European Union's Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), which require the liberalisation of 75 percent of African tariff lines. The author argues that such a move now would be misguided, as it would likely fail to address critical 21st-century issues like investment protection, intellectual property rights, and trade in services.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2014). Three scenarios for the future of AGOA. https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Three scenarios for the future of AGOA. 2014. https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Three scenarios for the future of AGOA |date=4 August 2014 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2014three, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Three scenarios for the future of AGOA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2014}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-agoa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }