Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia

The report analyzes Mongolia's energy transition using four scenarios: a coal-heavy reference case, a 'recent plans' case, an 'expanded green energy' case, and a 'shift in energy export' case. It finds that aggressive energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment could halve territorial GHG emissions by 2035 and reduce overall energy demand by 32% compared to the reference scenario. The study highlights the potential for Mongolia to shift from exporting coal to exporting renewable electricity to Northeast Asia, which would significantly reduce extraction-based emissions and mitigate the economic risk of 'carbon entanglement'.

• In the reference scenario, Mongolia's total energy demand is projected to rise from under 150 petajoules (PJ) in 2010 to over 400 PJ by 2035, with electricity and oil products growing more than five times their 2010 levels.
• The expanded green energy scenario could reduce total energy demand by 32% relative to the reference scenario by 2035, slowing the average growth rate of energy use from 4.7% to 3.1% between 2010 and 2035.
• Under the expanded green energy scenario, the share of renewable energy in electricity generation could exceed 40% by 2030, compared to remaining under 5% through 2035 in the reference scenario.
• Implementing all measures in the expanded green energy scenario could reduce territorial GHG emissions by 28 million tonnes CO2e in 2035, a reduction of nearly 50% compared to the reference scenario.
• The expanded green energy scenario is estimated to be more cost-effective than the reference scenario, with a cumulative net present value (NPV) benefit of nearly 400 million USD through 2035, primarily due to fuel savings from energy efficiency.
• The 'shift in energy export' scenario proposes that Mongolia could install nearly 12 GW of renewables in the South Gobi by 2031 to export renewable electricity to Northeast Asia, potentially displacing the value of coal exports.
• From an extraction-based accounting perspective, shifting from coal exports to renewable electricity exports could reduce Mongolia's contribution to global GHG emissions by 180 MtCO2 by 2035.
• The five most effective measures for GHG abatement identified are energy efficiency in the mining sector, wind power, hydropower, higher-efficiency new coal power plants, and shifting transport modes to rail.
• The expanded green energy scenario could reduce nationwide sulfur oxide (SOx) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by over 50% by 2035 compared to the reference case.
• Mongolia has one of the highest levels of fossil fuel subsidies in the world, with the IMF reporting that the country devoted 4.6% of its GDP to subsidizing coal.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2014). Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/GGGI-SEI-2014-Mongolia-green-energy-systems.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia. 2014. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/GGGI-SEI-2014-Mongolia-green-energy-systems.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia |date=March 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/GGGI-SEI-2014-Mongolia-green-energy-systems.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2014strategies, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/GGGI-SEI-2014-Mongolia-green-energy-systems.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }