ENMAK 2030+ Transpordi ja liikuvuse stsenaariumid

The report analyzes three scenarios for Estonia's transport sector: 'Non-intervening' (BAU), 'Low-intervention' (VS), and 'Knowledge-based' (EE). The BAU scenario predicts a nearly 60% increase in energy consumption by 2030 compared to 2012 levels. The EE scenario, which employs systemic policies including road user charges and land-use planning, aims to stop energy consumption growth, potentially achieving a 2% reduction by 2030. The analysis highlights that private and corporate spending on vehicle imports, maintenance, and fuel (approximately 1.5-1.7 billion EUR annually) far exceeds public infrastructure and passenger transport spending (approximately 400 million EUR annually). Environmentally, the EE scenario is the only one to project a decrease in CO2 equivalent emissions, forecasting a 36% reduction by 2030 compared to 2012.

• Between 1995 and 2010, energy and fuel consumption in the transport sector increased by over 33%, with nearly 90% of this consumption and growth originating from road transport.
• In the 'Non-intervening' (BAU) scenario, transport energy consumption is projected to grow by nearly 60% by 2030 compared to 2012, driven by increased motorization, general transport demand, and road freight growth.
• The 'Knowledge-based' (EE) scenario aims to halt the growth of transport energy consumption through systemic policies, potentially resulting in energy consumption that is 2% lower in 2030 than in 2012.
• Private and corporate expenditures on importing cars, vehicle maintenance, and fuel are significantly higher than public sector spending on infrastructure and passenger transport, totaling approximately 1.5-1.7 billion EUR annually compared to roughly 400 million EUR for public spending.
• The 'Knowledge-based' (EE) scenario is projected to reduce CO2 equivalent emissions by 36% by 2030 relative to 2012, whereas the BAU and VS scenarios show significant emission growth.
• The report identifies several high-impact measures for energy saving by 2030, including road user charges for cars, land-use planning, and energy-class-based vehicle taxation.

APA

Jüssi, M., & Rannala, M. (2014). ENMAK 2030+ Transpordi ja liikuvuse stsenaariumid. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4531.pdf

Chicago

Jüssi, Mari, and Marek Rannala. ENMAK 2030+ Transpordi ja liikuvuse stsenaariumid. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2014. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4531.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jüssi |first1=Mari |last2=Rannala |first2=Marek |title=ENMAK 2030+ Transpordi ja liikuvuse stsenaariumid |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4531.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jssi2014enmak, author = {Jüssi, Mari and Rannala, Marek}, title = {{ENMAK 2030+ Transpordi ja liikuvuse stsenaariumid}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4531.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }