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A briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics detailing how consecutive seasonal climate extremes in the UK between 2022 and 2025—including droughts and a wet winter—have increased farmgate lamb prices and consumer grocery bills.

This technical appendix details the econometric modeling and robustness checks used to estimate the impact of climate extremes on farmgate lamb prices in Great Britain from January 2019 to February 2026. The analysis employs a rolling-window ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to demonstrate that both short-term drought and long-term wet conditions drive price increases through a grass-fed supply chain mechanism.

This research paper develops an econometric climate model to value the ecosystem service of tropical forests in maintaining rainfall patterns necessary for hydropower energy generation, specifically analyzing the impact of Amazon deforestation on the Teles Pires plant in Brazil.

This research paper evaluates the impact of integrated crop-poultry systems on food security and farm income for smallholder farmers in semi-arid Kenya, finding that combining livestock (indigenous chickens) with crop-based climate-smart agriculture practices yields higher benefits than single-technology adoption.

This case study by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the governance and environmental risks associated with four federal transport infrastructure projects in the state of Pará: Ferrogrão, BR-155/158, BR-163/230/MT/PA, and BR-230. Using a 'market access approach' to quantify deforestation risks, the study finds that these projects collectively threaten nearly 7,000 square kilometers of Amazonian native vegetation, with over half of the impact concentrated in Pará. The report highlights significant transparency issues regarding project documentation and urges the Pará state government to engage in dialogue with the federal government to integrate deforestation control funding into project designs.

This case study by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the governance, areas of influence, and environmental risks associated with four federal transport infrastructure projects in the state of Pará: Ferrogrão, BR-155/158, BR-163/230/MT/PA, and BR-230. Using a 'market access approach' to quantify deforestation risks, the study finds that these projects collectively threaten nearly 7,000 square kilometers of native Amazon vegetation, with over half of that impact occurring in Pará. The report highlights significant transparency issues regarding project documentation and argues that the state government should engage in earlier dialogue with the federal government to incorporate mitigation costs and deforestation control into project designs.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) provides an ex-ante assessment of the environmental risks associated with the construction of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railway in Brazil. Using a market access approach, the researchers project that without mitigation measures, the railway will induce significant deforestation in Mato Grosso, leading to substantial carbon emissions and associated economic costs.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) and PUC-Rio evaluates the projected environmental risks of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railroad project in Brazil. Using a market access approach, the researchers estimate that the railroad will significantly increase deforestation in Mato Grosso by improving market access for farmers and ranchers, leading to substantial carbon emissions and associated social costs.

This research paper analyzes the growth of secondary vegetation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2004 to 2014, investigating whether this regeneration was a result of policy spillovers from law enforcement targeting primary forest loss. The authors find that increased enforcement in a cell's neighborhood significantly increases the probability and area of forest regrowth within that cell, suggesting a deterrence mechanism where offenders abandon deforested land due to higher perceived risks.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the adoption dynamics of three agricultural technologies in Brazil between 2006 and 2017: no-till farming (Plantio Direto), tractors, and fertilizers. Using data from the 2017 Agricultural Census, the study identifies three distinct spatial patterns of adoption, suggesting that the drivers and environmental consequences of agricultural intensification vary by technology.

This research paper by Jodie Keane explores the nature of intra-Commonwealth value chains using a mixed-methods approach. It analyzes trade intensity, shifts in intermediate goods sourcing, and firm-level data to determine how Commonwealth members integrate into regional versus global value chains (GVCs). The findings suggest a prevalence of additive value chains and a specific tendency for Small Island Developing States to export within the Commonwealth.