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The report analyzes the 'twin fossil shocks' of the 2020s—the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2026 shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—comparing them to the 1970s oil crises. It contends that unlike the 1970s, today's energy transition is driven by 'electrotech' (solar, wind, batteries, and EVs) that is cheaper, faster to deploy, and more secure than fossil fuels. The authors suggest these shocks will accelerate the absolute peak of fossil fuel demand, particularly by pushing LNG out of power generation and oil out of road transport, especially in Asia. The document concludes with policy recommendations to prioritize electrification and remove fossil fuel subsidies to end fuel dependency.

The report analyzes the role of renewable energy in shielding Britain from a fossil fuel crisis in March 2026. It finds that new wind and solar capacity reduced gas-fired power generation by 39% compared to 2021, avoiding approximately £7 million in daily gas purchases during the first four weeks of the crisis.

Turkey experienced record growth in wind and solar energy capacity in 2025, with combined new installations reaching 6.5 GW and total installed capacity for both sources hitting approximately 40 GW. Solar electricity generation doubled between 2023 and 2025, rising from 18.4 TWh to 37.3 TWh. While Turkey leads in its immediate region, its overall renewable energy share of electricity production (43% in 2025) remains below the European Union average of 48%.

In 2025, wind and solar energy reached a record 22% of Türkiye's electricity generation, though coal remained the largest source at 34%. While the country has a massive 33 GW battery project pipeline that exceeds any single EU nation, it still trails European averages for renewable energy share. Persistent drought has significantly reduced hydroelectric output, increasing reliance on natural gas imports by an estimated $1.8 billion annually. A new purchase guarantee for domestic coal plants starting in 2026 may further increase coal generation, potentially contradicting the country's 2035 target of 120 GW of wind and solar capacity.

The document argues that heat pumps are a cost-effective alternative to gas heating due to their superior energy efficiency, which allows them to overcome higher electricity costs. In the residential sector, heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces for four consecutive years. In the industrial sector, they are particularly viable for low-temperature processes (under 200°C), with the potential to increase U.S. GDP by over $42 billion by 2030. The briefing concludes that other alternatives, such as hydrogen and renewable natural gas, are less scalable and more expensive than heat pumps.

The report finds that European governments are increasingly integrating carbon dioxide removals (CDR) into their climate strategies, often as a substitute for deep emission reductions. Analysis of the European Commission and six countries reveals a pattern of 'overreliance,' characterized by fragmented planning, a lack of feasibility assessments for engineered removals, and land-sink projections that ignore climate risks or contradict existing forestry policies. The report warns that betting on uncertain future technologies and unstable land sinks risks delaying essential decarbonization and undermining climate targets.

The report analyzes the limitations of the UNFCCC's consensus-based model and the non-binding nature of Brazil's COP30 Roadmap, arguing for a binding Fossil Fuel Treaty to regulate supply and ensure a just transition.

The document examines the prevalence and design of dispute prevention, management, and settlement (DPMS) provisions in national investment laws. Based on an analysis of 167 laws, it finds that while DPMS provisions are common—particularly in Africa and Asia—the inclusion of 'prior consent' to arbitration exposes states to significant risks. The report argues that states should prioritize judicial capacity building over parallel arbitration channels and strongly recommends against granting unilateral, indefinite prior consent to arbitration in national legislation.

The document examines the prevalence and nature of dispute settlement mechanisms in national investment laws, highlighting the risks of 'prior consent' to arbitration and recommending the strengthening of national judiciaries over the creation of parallel arbitration paths.

The report examines how national investment laws handle the prevention, management, and settlement of disputes between investors and states. Based on an analysis of 167 laws, it finds that while dispute resolution is a common feature—particularly in Africa and Asia—the use of international arbitration and 'prior consent' clauses exposes states to significant financial and regulatory risks. The authors argue that states should prioritize national courts and administrative reviews over parallel arbitration systems and strongly recommend against including unilateral prior consent to international arbitration in national legislation.

The report analyzes 23 regulatory instruments from various countries to identify common features of greenwashing policy, such as the use of consumer protection laws, the role of non-binding guidance, and the necessity of scientific substantiation. It highlights a gap between high-level regulatory principles and the practical ability of smaller producers to provide verifiable data, suggesting that voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) can bridge this gap if regulators establish clear recognition criteria.

The report identifies 815 cases of climate misinformation across 44 audiovisual channels in Brazil, Spain, France, and Poland. It finds that private media are significantly more porous to disinformation than public media, with 85% of cases occurring in private outlets. A strong negative correlation exists between the volume of climate coverage and the prevalence of disinformation, meaning media that cover climate issues more frequently tend to spread less misinformation. The study highlights a shift toward 'new climate denial,' which focuses on obstructing climate action and attacking renewable energy rather than denying the existence of warming. Renewable energy is a primary target, often linked to narratives of lost sovereignty, anti-EU sentiment, and social decline. The report recommends improved journalist training, stricter guest selection protocols, and increased accountability for broadcasters.

The report identifies 815 cases of climate disinformation across 44 audiovisual channels in four countries, finding that private media are significantly more prone to spreading such content than public media. It highlights a negative correlation between the volume of climate coverage and the prevalence of disinformation, suggesting that consistent reporting reduces the risk of misinformation. The analysis reveals distinct national narratives: France focuses heavily on renewable energy costs and inefficiency; Poland links climate policy to anti-EU sentiment and industrial decline; Brazil emphasizes agribusiness virtues and climate denial; and Spain shows a unique susceptibility to 'chemtrails' conspiracy theories. The document recommends journalist training on obstructionist discourses, more rigorous guest selection for TV sets, regular environmental coverage, and the establishment of accountability frameworks for disinformation spreaders.

The report identifies systemic barriers to climate finance in four Asian countries, highlighting widespread capacity gaps in project preparation and risk assessment, fragmented governance, and regulatory uncertainty. It emphasizes that while national strategies often exist on paper, implementation is hindered by a lack of coordination between ministries and a failure to integrate climate priorities into local government mandates. The study specifically notes the exclusion of vulnerable communities and SMEs from finance flows due to a lack of tailored instruments and information. To unlock resources, the authors recommend building climate literacy, clarifying institutional responsibilities, and deploying blended finance tools to de-risk private investment.

The document highlights a paradox in the energy transition across Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico: while renewable capacity grew by approximately 29% between 2020 and 2023, social barriers and a continued reliance on fossil fuel investment hinder a just transition. It emphasizes that technical success does not guarantee social license, citing non-binding participation mechanisms in Chile and territorial conflicts in Mexico and Colombia. The report calls for a shift from mere 'socialization' to 'real participation' to prevent community displacement and ensure energy justice, including clean cooking and affordable tariffs.

The report examines the evolution of governance in the Global South, tracing the impact of colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes. It analyzes current governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, noting a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity in some regions, while others show improved state capacity despite limited democratic freedoms.

The report analyzes how GDP composition shifts from agriculture to services and manufacturing as countries grow wealthier. It highlights that while Africa's economic structure mirrors India's service-led growth, it lacks the broad industrial base seen in China's manufacturing-led strategy. The text notes that Africa's growth has been hindered by a reliance on extractive industries and a delayed demographic window of opportunity, expected around 2051.

The document analyzes Africa's economic trajectory, noting that while the absolute size of the economy is growing, its share of global GDP remains stagnant at around 3% despite a rapidly increasing population. It highlights a widening gap in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world, attributing this to a reliance on raw material exports, the 'resource curse', and a slow recovery from COVID-19. By 2043, Nigeria is projected to become the world's third-largest country by population, and the five largest African economies are expected to be Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

The report analyzes global carbon emissions, noting that 2023 saw record levels of 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent from fossil fuels. It highlights the dominance of a few producers and the significant impact of coal and methane. While China and the EU are pursuing decarbonization, the US experience fluctuates with political administrations. The report forecasts a peak in emissions by 2037/8, but warns that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could reach 551 ppm by 2063, potentially leading to a 3°C temperature rise. Africa is identified as particularly vulnerable, facing increasing emissions from population growth and significant forest loss, with 100 million hectares cleared over three decades.

The document examines how urban mobility networks in Tallinn and Bangkok create unequal experiences of freedom and constraint. In Tallinn, car-oriented planning and the uneven distribution of shared e-mobility create barriers for non-drivers and the digitally excluded. In Bangkok, inadequate infrastructure, high traffic fatalities, and poor first- and last-mile connectivity maintain the dominance of cars despite the presence of street vendors and motorcycle taxis.