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This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the state of governance in Africa, comparing its security, capacity, and inclusion metrics against the rest of the world. It examines the relationship between governance quality, stability, and economic development, highlighting the risks associated with autocratic leadership and the role of democratic institutions as shock absorbers.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic and social impacts on Africa by 2050 across four global scenarios: Sustainable World, Growth World, Divided World, and World at War. It identifies the success of integration efforts, such as the AfCFTA, as the primary driver of divergent outcomes, noting that the Sustainable World scenario offers the most significant gains in GDP per capita, poverty reduction, and human development, while the World at War scenario presents the worst outcomes.

This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 2019 to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) platform. It analyzes demographic shifts, economic growth, poverty trends, and energy transitions, projecting a region with significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and a shift toward manufacturing and renewable energy, despite persistent challenges with food insecurity and carbon emissions.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the scale, impact, and future projections of remittance flows to Africa. It examines how these funds support households and macroeconomic stability, while also warning of potential 'remittance traps' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth and government accountability.

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), established in 1983 and revised in 2019, comprises 11 member states in Central Africa. While its mandate expanded in 1998 to include peace and security alongside economic cooperation, the region continues to face challenges including low regional integration, currency diversity, and significant economic disparities, with member states ranging from low-income to nominally upper-middle-income.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of an 'Education scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The document argues that increased investment in education acts as a multiplier for economic growth, reducing extreme poverty and improving health outcomes across the continent.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the state and requirements of vocational education in Africa, highlighting a significant mismatch between graduate skills and employer needs, low enrollment in vocational programs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the challenges posed by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

This research paper examines the growth and impact of private education in Africa, noting a shift from charitable mission schools to profit-driven institutions driven by government failures and foreign investment. While some private schools provide high-quality alternatives to overcrowded and underperforming public systems, the trend is criticized for exacerbating inequality and draining resources from the public sector.

This research paper presents an 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential impact of an agricultural revolution through eight specific interventions using the IFs forecasting platform. The scenario aims to address low productivity, climate vulnerability, and food insecurity to stimulate rural economic transformation and diversification.

This report analyzes energy demand and production forecasts for Africa, comparing a 'Current Path' scenario with a 'Combined' scenario characterized by faster economic growth and policy interventions to constrain energy exports for domestic security.

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) analyzes the dispute settlement function within national investment laws, based on a review of 167 laws. It examines the prevalence of adjudicative mechanisms like national courts and arbitration, as well as non-adjudicative options such as administrative review and amicable settlement. The report warns against the risks of 'advance consent' to international arbitration and provides a framework for policy-makers to assess and reform their national investment laws to minimize legal and financial risks.

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) analyzes the dispute settlement functions within 167 national investment laws. It examines the prevalence of various mechanisms—including national courts, arbitration, administrative review, and amicable settlements—and provides a framework for policymakers to design or reform these laws to minimize legal and financial risks, specifically warning against the inclusion of prior consent to international arbitration.

This report section analyzes the impact of commodity dependence on African economies, detailing the 'resource curse' where heavy reliance on raw material exports correlates with poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. It contrasts the development trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor nations and discusses the role of sovereign wealth funds and the global energy transition in shaping future demand.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.

This research paper analyzes the economic trajectory of Africa on its 'Current Path' through 2043, highlighting a growing divergence in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world despite an increase in the absolute size of the African economy.

A report by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA) detailing how deforestation in the Congo Basin disrupts a climate teleconnection that provides critical rainfall to West Africa, specifically threatening the global cocoa supply chain and increasing costs for European importers.

This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the economic implications of a proposed International Maritime Organization (IMO) shipping carbon levy on African states. Using the GTAP-E model, the study finds that such a levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and exacerbate existing freight cost imbalances. The report advocates for an equitable transition where revenues are redistributed as direct grants to climate-vulnerable nations for out-of-sector projects like renewable energy and resilient agriculture.

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics, produced with Strategic Perspectives, proposes principles and frameworks for a just and equitable global phase-out of oil and gas production. It argues that current production trajectories are incompatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement and calls for leadership from the G7 and G20 to coordinate a managed decline of fossil fuels to avoid stranded assets and minimize social costs.

This research paper analyzes the tension in German foreign policy between corporate profit interests and value-based rhetoric, specifically regarding trade and investment in Africa. The author argues that Germany is shifting from a broad 'exportist' geoeconomic approach toward a more selective strategy focused on risk mitigation and the securing of critical resources, such as LNG and minerals, while urging a transition toward supporting African economic self-determination and regional industrialization.

The document discusses the role of established and emergent gas producers in Africa, noting the potential for revenue growth due to global supply constraints caused by the war in Ukraine, while warning of the high risk of stranded assets as the world moves toward net-zero emissions.