AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic and social impacts on Africa by 2050 across four global scenarios: Sustainable World, Growth World, Divided World, and World at War. It identifies the success of integration efforts, such as the AfCFTA, as the primary driver of divergent outcomes, noting that the Sustainable World scenario offers the most significant gains in GDP per capita, poverty reduction, and human development, while the World at War scenario presents the worst outcomes.

• The Sustainable World scenario is the most beneficial for Africa, resulting in the highest average GDP per capita and the largest economic size. In this scenario, 38 African countries are projected to have extreme poverty rates below 3% of their population by 2050, compared to only nine countries in 2025. The countries expected to see the largest income increases are Seychelles, Mauritius, Gabon, Cape Verde, and Equatorial Guinea.
• Sub-Saharan Africa carries the world's largest poverty burden, with 487 million people (37% of its population) living in extreme poverty in 2025. The outcome for this region varies drastically by scenario: extreme poverty could decline to 6% (130 million people) in the Sustainable World, but could reach 17% (396 million people) in the World at War scenario.
• Despite rapid population growth—increasing from 19% to 26% of the global population by 2050—Africa's share of global economic and material power remains limited. In the Sustainable World scenario, Africa's GDP is projected to be five times its 2025 size, yet its share of global power is expected to increase by less than four percentage points to reach 13.3% of the worldwide total by 2050.
• Carbon emissions from fossil fuels in Africa are expected to increase across all four scenarios due to growing populations and low current energy availability. However, emissions are lowest in the World at War scenario because of significantly lower economic growth and higher poverty levels.
• Africa's future development is constrained by internal complexities, including a lack of supranational powers in organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS, and the lingering effects of colonialism from Belgium, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Britain, and France. The document notes that a 'Divided World' trajectory would result in GDP per capita 33% lower and extreme poverty 167 million people higher than in the Sustainable World.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=6 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }