AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES

The document analyzes four global scenarios—Sustainable World, Growth World, Divided World, and World at War—to project Africa's trajectory by 2050. The Sustainable World scenario is identified as the most beneficial, offering the highest GDP per capita, the lowest extreme poverty rates, and reduced inequality through social grants and gender empowerment. Conversely, the World at War and Divided World scenarios are described as detrimental, constraining growth and increasing poverty. Across all scenarios, carbon emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise due to low energy availability and population growth. Geopolitically, Africa's influence remains limited by internal fragmentation and low state capacity, though the African Union could potentially increase the continent's 'soft power' if it achieves a unified global voice.

• The Sustainable World scenario provides the most positive outcomes for Africa, featuring the largest economy and highest average GDP per capita. In this scenario, 38 African countries are projected to have extreme poverty rates below 3% by 2050, compared to only nine in 2025. Inequality in Africa is expected to decrease by 9% between 2025 and 2050 due to gender empowerment, women's workforce participation, and expanded social grant programs.
• The World at War and Divided World scenarios are highly disadvantageous for Africa. The World at War scenario results in the highest extreme poverty rate in Sub-Saharan Africa at 17% (396 million people) and the slowest economic growth. The Divided World scenario is projected to result in a GDP per capita 33% lower than that of the Sustainable World, with 167 million more people living in extreme poverty.
• Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use in Africa are projected to increase across all four scenarios because of the continent's growing population and current low energy availability. Emissions are lowest in the World at War scenario due to significantly lower economic growth and higher poverty levels.
• Africa's global influence remains limited regardless of the scenario due to political division and a lack of supranational powers in organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS. Even in the Sustainable World scenario, where GDP grows fivefold, Africa's share of global power is projected to increase by less than four percentage points to 13.3% by 2050.
• The success of integration efforts, specifically the AfCFTA, is the primary driver of divergent outcomes for African countries across the scenarios. Additionally, procurement choices regarding digital infrastructure may create path dependencies, with some governments potentially preferring China's state-centered stability approach over the EU's focus on individual rights.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=6 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=06-impact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }