Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply

A report by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA) detailing how deforestation in the Congo Basin disrupts a climate teleconnection that provides critical rainfall to West Africa, specifically threatening the global cocoa supply chain and increasing costs for European importers.

• Deforestation in the Congo Basin disrupts a climate teleconnection where rainforests generate up to 83% of local rainfall and provide almost one-fifth of the rainfall in West Africa. If current trends continue, 27% of the forest could be destroyed by 2050, potentially reducing rainfall in the Basin by up to 40% and along the West African Guinea coast by up to 20% during the rainy season.
• Congo Basin deforestation is projected to significantly reduce cacao yields across nine countries, with cumulative losses reaching 256,000 tonnes by 2030 and 3.06 million tonnes by 2050. Ivory Coast faces the highest risk, with potential cumulative losses of nearly 1.6 million tonnes by 2050, representing approximately 80% of its current annual production volume.
• Deforestation will increasingly drive up cocoa prices, contributing 11% of the total price in 2030 and rising to 40.2% by 2050. ZCA projects the cocoa price will reach USD 68.1 per kilogram in 2050, compared to a projected USD 11.6 per kilogram in 2030.
• European importers face severe economic risks; 15 EU countries could pay USD 33.8 billion more for cocoa imports in 2050 than in 2025 due to deforestation. Cumulative additional costs for these importers could reach USD 256 billion by 2050, which is nearly double the global chocolate industry's 2024 market value of USD 130 billion.
• Specific high-volume EU importers of Ivory Coast cocoa will see significant price increases by 2050: the Netherlands could pay USD 13.1 billion more, Belgium USD 6 billion more, and Germany USD 4.4 billion more for current shipment volumes.
• Investing in Congo Basin forest conservation is more cost-effective for the EU than inaction. Community-led restoration focusing on Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) offers the highest returns, with the EU potentially benefiting from USD 3 to USD 6 in avoided costs for every dollar invested by 2050, even at a 50% success rate.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2025). Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=September 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2025congo, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }