Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply

Deforestation in the Congo Basin risks reducing regional rainfall by up to 40%, which could lead to cumulative cocoa yield losses of 3.06 million tonnes across nine African countries by 2050. This supply shock is projected to drive cocoa prices to USD 68.1 per kilogram by 2050, with deforestation accounting for 40.2% of that price. EU importers could face cumulative additional costs of USD 256 billion by 2050. The report argues that investing in forest conservation, particularly community-led restoration, is more cost-effective than inaction, offering avoided costs of USD 1.8 to USD 6 for every dollar invested.

• The Congo Basin's rainforests are critical for regional water cycles, generating up to 83% of local rainfall and providing nearly 20% of the rainfall in West Africa through a climate teleconnection.
• Deforestation in the Congo Basin could reduce local rainfall by up to 40% and decrease rainy season rainfall along the West African Guinea coast by up to 20% by shifting monsoon rain bands inland.
• Congo Basin deforestation is projected to cause cumulative cocoa yield losses of 3.06 million tonnes across nine African countries by 2050. Ivory Coast faces the highest risk, with potential losses of nearly 1.6 million tonnes, representing approximately 80% of its current annual production.
• Deforestation will become the primary driver of cocoa price increases by 2050. While market growth dominates prices until 2030, deforestation is projected to account for 40.2% of a USD 68.1 per kilogram cocoa price by 2050.
• EU importers face severe economic risks, with cumulative additional costs estimated at USD 256 billion by 2050. In 2050 alone, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany could pay USD 13.1 billion, USD 6 billion, and USD 4.4 billion more, respectively, for current shipment volumes.
• Investing in Congo Basin conservation is more economical for the EU than inaction. Community-led restoration focusing on Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) offers the highest returns, with avoided costs between USD 3 and USD 6 for every dollar invested.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2025). Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=September 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2025congo, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Congo Basin deforestation threatens regional rainfall and global cocoa supply}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-17_ZCA_Congo-basin-deforestation-threatens-global-cocoa-supply.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }