The State of Governance in Africa

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the state of governance in Africa, comparing its security, capacity, and inclusion metrics against the rest of the world. It examines the relationship between governance quality, stability, and economic development, highlighting the risks associated with autocratic leadership and the role of democratic institutions as shock absorbers.

• Africa exhibits approximately 25% less 'thickness' of governance—a composite measure of security, capacity, and inclusion—compared to the rest of the world. This deficiency in governance is cited as a primary reason for the continent's slower-than-expected development, particularly regarding the provision of law, order, and basic services. Within the continent, Central Africa is noted as being particularly poor in these dimensions, while North Africa shows strength in capacity but weakness in inclusion.
• Instability in Africa is linked to a lack of investment in social control mechanisms, such as early warning systems, police, military responses, and conflict resolution institutions. This creates a 'vicious circle' where poverty drives instability, and instability further entrenches poverty. In contrast, democratic systems can act as 'shock absorbers'; for example, South Africa's liberal constitution, independent courts, and free media help prevent violent displacement of the government despite high levels of inequality and corruption.
• Autocratic regimes, such as those in Rwanda and Ethiopia, have achieved rapid developmental progress by implementing decisive pro-growth policies following national traumas (the 1994 genocide in Rwanda and the Red Terror in Ethiopia). However, this progress is described as 'brittle and volatile' because it depends on single visionary leaders. The document notes that progress often reverses when such leaders cling to power or are replaced by flawed successors, as seen in countries like Uganda, Angola, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, and Algeria.
• There is a positive correlation between levels of average income and the quality of governance. Data from the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and the Polity IV dataset indicate that government effectiveness and regulatory quality improve as income levels rise, with low-income countries generally exhibiting poorer effectiveness and regulatory quality compared to middle-income countries.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). The State of Governance in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=07-the-state-of-governance-in-africa

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. The State of Governance in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=07-the-state-of-governance-in-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=The State of Governance in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=07-the-state-of-governance-in-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026state, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The State of Governance in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=07-the-state-of-governance-in-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }