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India and Africa: bridging the gap between words and deeds
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between India and Africa, arguing that while India possesses significant comparative advantages based on historical ties and shared developmental goals, there is a persistent gap between its strategic rhetoric and material outcomes. The author identifies structural constraints—including limited fiscal headroom, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and reputational risks—that have caused India to lag behind other global powers like China. The report recommends a coherent Africa strategy focused on low-cost, high-impact initiatives in health, education, and digital finance, utilizing 'anchor states' such as South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt to scale interventions.
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Document type: Report
Leveraging Copper for Economic Transformation
The report recommends that Zambia diversify its economy by expanding copper smelting and refining, prioritizing affordable electricity, and improving trade corridors to capture more value from the global copper supply chain.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s educational funnel in context
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the 'educational funnel' in Africa, detailing the significant attrition rates from primary through tertiary education. It highlights a severe educational crisis in sub-Saharan Africa compared to North Africa and other global regions, noting that the region is forecast to miss several Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 targets by 2030.
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Document type: Research paper
El Niño and Climate Change
This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics explains the mechanisms of El Niño, its interaction with climate change, and its global socio-economic and environmental impacts. It highlights a 61% chance of an El Niño event emerging between May and July 2026, noting that human-caused warming is likely increasing the frequency and severity of such events, while simultaneously making them harder to predict.
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Document type: Briefing
Vom geopolitischen Wettbewerb zur strategischen Zusammenarbeit im Bereich CRM: Das Dreieck EU-Indonesien-Afrika
This research paper examines the potential for triangular cooperation between the European Union (EU), Indonesia, and African nations in the critical raw materials (CRM) sector. It argues that while the EU and Indonesia currently employ different partnership models in Africa—the EU focusing on supply chain integration and ESG standards, and Indonesia focusing on downstream industrialisation and South-South cooperation—these differences are complementary. The authors propose a framework where EU financial instruments and ESG expertise combine with Indonesia's technical experience in mineral processing to support African goals of local value addition and industrialisation, thereby reducing all parties' dependence on China.
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Document type: Research paper
Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies outlines a proposed 'Energy Policy scenario' for Africa to transition toward a low-emissions energy future. It analyzes the gap between current fossil fuel production and climate targets, the potential for scaling renewables and nuclear energy, and the role of energy efficiency in reducing total demand.
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Document type: Research paper
Unpacking National Investment Laws
This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) analyzes the dispute settlement function within national investment laws, based on a review of 167 laws. It examines the prevalence of adjudicative mechanisms like national courts and arbitration, as well as non-adjudicative options such as administrative review and amicable settlement. The report warns against the risks of 'advance consent' to international arbitration and provides a framework for policy-makers to assess and reform their national investment laws to minimize legal and financial risks.
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Document type: Report
Analyser les lois nationales sur l’investissement : fonction de règlement des litiges
This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) analyzes the dispute settlement functions within 167 national investment laws. It examines the prevalence of various mechanisms—including national courts, arbitration, administrative review, and amicable settlements—and provides a framework for policymakers to design or reform these laws to minimize legal and financial risks, specifically warning against the inclusion of prior consent to international arbitration.
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Document type: Report
Priorities and Benefits of the AfCFTA
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the priorities and potential benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It analyzes Africa's historical reliance on primary commodity exports, the prevalence of informal intra-African trade due to high formal costs, and how the AfCFTA aims to drive industrialization and structural transformation by reducing trade barriers and fostering regional value chains.
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Document type: Report
Manufacturing
This report evaluates the state of industrialisation in Africa, analyzing the causes of stagnation and premature deindustrialisation while modeling a 'Manufacturing scenario' to forecast the potential economic benefits of scaled-up investment in the sector by 2043.
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Document type: Report
AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.
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Document type: Report
The AfCFTA Implementation Challenges
This research paper examines the implementation challenges of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), focusing on the economic disparities between member states and the resulting risks for Least Developed Countries (LDCs).
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes trends in stability and armed conflict in Africa, highlighting the role of state-based violence, organized crime, and rapid urbanization in driving fatality rates.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES
This report outlines the 'Combined scenario' for Africa's economic structural transformation toward 2043, focusing on the shift from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. It details the projected roles of manufacturing, services, agriculture, and ICT, while emphasizing the necessity of urban resilience and regional trade integration via AfCFTA to achieve a diversified, knowledge-based economy.
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Document type: Report
The Manufacturing Sector in Africa
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.
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Document type: Research paper
The AfCFTA Scenario
This research paper outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. Starting in 2026, the scenario models the impact of tariff reductions and productivity increases across Africa, noting a specific 15-year phase-out period for G6 countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). The goal is to simulate how the agreement can boost intra-African trade and shift economies toward higher-value production.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025
This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the geopolitical landscape of Africa in 2025, characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world. It examines the impact of US strategic retrenchment, the first G20 summit held on the continent, tensions in the Horn of Africa, and the strategic competition over critical minerals along the Lobito Corridor.
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Document type: Report
Afrika in einer multipolaren Welt: Machtpolitik in einer sich wandelnden Weltordnung, 2025 (EN)
This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the geopolitical landscape of Africa in 2025, characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world order. It examines the impact of the second Trump administration's transactional approach to US-Africa relations, the outcomes of the first G20 summit held on the continent in South Africa, and the strategic competition over critical minerals along the Lobito Corridor. The document also details increasing instability in the Horn of Africa driven by global and regional power rivalries.
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Document type: Report
Ein Jahr mit bescheidener regulatorischer Klarheit, aber jedes bisschen hilft (EN)
The report analyzes the challenges and institutional developments facing Africa's green technology transition in 2025. It highlights the impact of tightening global trade rules, such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the uncertainty surrounding the US African Growth and Opportunity Act, alongside the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement. The document details continental efforts to mobilize climate finance, integrate regional power markets, and adopt AI for climate action, while emphasizing the need for affordable decarbonization finance to prevent the marginalization of smaller African firms.
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Document type: Report
The Year of Modest Regulatory Clarity, but Every Little Helps
The report analyzes the state of Africa's green technology transition in 2025, highlighting the tension between increasing technology affordability and tightening global trade and regulatory frameworks. It details the impact of US trade policy shifts, the upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and continental efforts to mobilize climate finance and integrate energy markets.
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Document type: Report