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Research summary with recommendations
The report argues that the IMF's 'climate turn' is contradictory, as its conventional lending programmes (Upper Credit Tranche) often prioritize fiscal consolidation and extractive industries, undermining the climate goals of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Through case studies in Ecuador, Egypt, the DRC, Tanzania, and Pakistan, the document demonstrates how IMF-mandated expenditure compression and reliance on fossil fuel exports create structural climate vulnerabilities. Key findings indicate that while the IMF has improved its climate analysis, this does not translate into programme design, which continues to favor private investment and cost recovery over the public investment needed for a just transition.
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Document type: Executive summary
Copper shortage could be the undoing of COP31 electrification push
Global Witness warns that the global push for electrification, highlighted by priorities for COP31 and plans in the EU and China, faces a critical bottleneck due to copper shortages. The organization identifies declining copper grades, supply chain disruptions of sulphuric acid (essential for processing), and export bans on concentrates in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, and Tanzania as primary threats. To prevent high-income countries from monopolizing resources, Global Witness proposes a UN-led multi-decade plan to ensure equitable access to minerals and prioritize climate goals over military or data center applications.
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Document type: Statement
A Multi-Criteria Policy Coherence Index for Water-Energy-Food Nexus Governance and Energy Transition Pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa
The study finds a significant disconnect between the design and implementation of water, energy, and food policies in four Sub-Saharan African countries. While policies appear aligned on paper, particularly regarding water management, fragmented energy market instruments and sustainable agriculture policies create regulatory uncertainty that hinders investment and resource management.
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Document type: Research paper
Anti-migrant violence distracts from the real causes of SA’s economic crisis
The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) denounces the surge of anti-migrant rhetoric and violence in South Africa, attributing the social unrest to systemic economic crises rather than migration. The document highlights the role of vigilante groups and political actors in scapegoating migrants to deflect from government failures, including high unemployment and failing public services. It calls for a shift toward regional integration, the regularisation of undocumented migrants, and a pro-employment economic strategy to address the root causes of community despair.
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Document type: Statement
Offshore renewables could unlock over USD 1 trillion in economic benefits for Africa
Africa possesses immense untapped ocean-based renewable energy potential, particularly in offshore wind, which could provide over USD 1 trillion in economic benefits and millions of jobs. While current deployment is minimal, tapping just 5% of the continent's 6,750 GW offshore wind potential could more than double its current power generation capacity and meet all new electricity demand through 2040. Realising this potential requires significant investment in infrastructure and policy frameworks, as Africa currently receives less than 2% of global renewable energy investment.
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Document type: Briefing
Uganda Development Futures
The report evaluates Uganda's path toward middle-income status by 2040, analyzing scenarios across demographics, health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and governance. It finds that while the 'Current Path' falls short of Vision 2040 targets, a combined implementation of strategic interventions could lift 11.03 million more people out of poverty and raise GDP per capita to US$6,925 by 2040, reaching the US$9,500 target by 2045. Key drivers for growth include large-scale infrastructure and leapfrogging, which is identified as having the greatest impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. However, these gains are accompanied by a projected 30% increase in carbon emissions above the Current Path, primarily driven by manufacturing and governance improvements.
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Document type: Report
Zambia Development Futures
The report projects that Zambia's GDP per capita will rise to US$5,467 by 2043 under the Current Path, though extreme poverty remains high at 67.3%. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and 'leapfrogging' through renewable energy and ICT as the most impactful drivers for economic growth. While carbon emissions are forecast to peak in 2036 and then decline due to increased hydroelectricity, the report highlights critical vulnerabilities in food security, secondary education, and rural electricity access.
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Document type: Report
Tanzania: Introduction
Tanzania is a lower-middle-income country in East Africa characterized by steady GDP growth but significant gaps in human development and political stability. While the economy has grown at an average of 6% annually, the country faces persistent poverty and environmental challenges such as deforestation and soil erosion. Politically, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) maintains dominance, though the 2025 general elections were marked by irregularities, violence, and the suppression of opposition parties, leading to international condemnation and a deepening governance crisis.
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Document type: Research paper
Tanzania: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report identifies structural constraints in Tanzania, such as extreme informality and infrastructure gaps, and proposes a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms. This integrated pathway could increase GDP by US$80.4 billion and reduce poverty from 71% to 24% by 2043. Key recommendations include deepening AfCFTA integration, modernising agriculture, diversifying energy sources, and mainstreaming climate adaptation.
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Document type: Report
Uganda Background
The document outlines Uganda's transition to multiparty democracy and its current governance structure. It details the country's natural resource wealth, specifically the discovery of oil reserves on Lake Albert and the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), while noting environmental opposition from the European Union Parliament. The text also traces Uganda's economic planning from early independence through to Vision 2040 and the current Third National Development Plan (NDPIII), which focuses on resource-led industrialisation to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2040.
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Document type: Research paper
Rwanda Background
The document outlines Rwanda's transition from a low-income country to its aspirations for high-income status by 2050. It details the 'Vision 2050' strategic plan, which focuses on human development, competitiveness, agriculture, urbanisation, and state institutions. While Rwanda has seen significant GDP growth—averaging 7.2% from 2009 to 2019—it faces structural challenges including high inflation, rising external debt, and a large informal sector. The report also notes the role of the Rwanda Energy Group and the use of Lake Kivu for biogas extraction to meet energy needs.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa Development Futures
The report analyses Africa's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with various sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it fails to meet Agenda 2063 targets, leaving 19.1% of the population in extreme poverty. The Combined scenario demonstrates that coordinated reforms in governance, trade (AfCFTA), education, and infrastructure could raise GDP (MER) to US$8.87 trillion, increase GDP per capita (PPP) to US$8,040, and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9%. Key findings highlight the critical role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance as the most transformative levers for income growth and poverty reduction. The report also details a significant energy gap, where demand is projected to outpace production by 2043 despite massive solar potential, and a health transition marked by a 'double burden' of persisting communicable diseases and rapidly rising non-communicable diseases.
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Document type: Report
Report on the activities of the Independent Evaluation Unit
The IEU report for February to May 2026 outlines the progress of several independent evaluations, including those on gender, the Project Preparation Facility, and the private sector. It highlights the ongoing Third Performance Review (TPR) and the LORTA impact evaluation programme, which supports 23 evaluations. The Unit also reports on its strategic engagement with other multilateral climate funds, the use of AI in evaluation synthesis, and its budget expenditure, which stood at 19% (USD 1.5 million) of the annual budget as of 30 April 2026.
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Document type: Report
Consideration of accreditation proposals and activities – Addendum VIII Accreditation assessment of APL180
The GCF Accreditation Panel recommends the accreditation of HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation (APL180) for 'small' individual projects with a maximum environmental and social risk category of medium risk (category B/I-2). The assessment found that Helvetas fully meets most fiduciary, environmental, social, and gender standards, though it partially meets basic fiduciary standards due to gaps in internal audit quality assessment and the public disclosure of investigative guidelines. Helvetas is recommended for accreditation provided it meets specific conditions regarding the publication of its investigation terms of reference and the delivery of an external quality assessment of its internal audit function.
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Document type: Report
Ripple effects 100 days into the Iran energy crisis
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has triggered a global energy crisis, causing Brent crude to reach USD 138/barrel and spiking natural gas prices, particularly in Asia. This disruption has led to increased food and fertiliser prices, slowed global GDP growth, and strained national budgets through increased fossil fuel subsidies. In response, 26 countries and regions have implemented clean energy measures, with Asia leading in both vulnerability to supply shocks and the acceleration of clean technology investments and deployments.
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Document type: Fact sheet
NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA
The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.
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Document type: Report
The State of ClimateTech in Africa 2.0
African ClimateTech has grown significantly, with funding increasing from $206 million in 2016 to over $1.5 billion in 2025, now accounting for nearly 40% of all disclosed venture funding on the continent. However, this growth is highly concentrated: the top 10 companies raised as much as all other companies combined, and Energy accounts for roughly 65% of total funding. The report argues that the ecosystem is not a single market but a collection of applications maturing at different speeds. Energy Generation has reached 'Early Maturity,' while Mobility & Transport is in 'Late Frenzy.' Conversely, Water Access and Built Materials remain in 'Irruption.' A critical finding is that financial maturity, rather than technological readiness, is the primary constraint, with significant gaps in early-stage equity and working capital. The report advocates for 'tailored capital stacks' that combine grants, equity, and debt based on the specific maturity stage of each application.
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Document type: Report
Qui achète le coltan de contrebande du Rwanda ?
Global Witness reveals that coltan from conflict-affected mines in the DRC is being smuggled into Rwanda, where it is laundered through traceability systems like ITSCI and Better Mining. The report identifies seven Rwandan companies dominating these exports, which are then processed by smelters in China, Kazakhstan, and Thailand, potentially reaching major global brands such as Apple, Microsoft, and Toyota.
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Document type: Report
Who buys Rwanda’s smuggled coltan?
Global Witness reports that conflict coltan from the DRC's Rubaya mines is being smuggled into Rwanda and laundered into global supply chains through failed due diligence systems like ITSCI and Better Mining. The investigation identifies seven Rwandan companies responsible for 85% of exports, five of which are directly linked to conflict coltan. This material is processed by smelters in China, Kazakhstan, and Thailand, eventually reaching global brands such as Apple, Microsoft, and Toyota via tantalum capacitors.
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Document type: Report
Country profile – Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo's economy is heavily reliant on mining, particularly copper and cobalt, which generate over 90% of mining revenues. While the country possesses vast hydropower potential, electricity access remains limited to 19% of the population. The sector is characterized by a mix of large-scale mining and significant artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), the latter of which is linked to conflict minerals (3TG) in the east. Infrastructure development is currently focused on strategic corridors like the Lobito Corridor and the TAZARA rehabilitation to improve export logistics.
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Document type: Report