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The report examines Qatar's strategic engagement in the Horn of Africa, driven by a desire for international significance and regional autonomy from Saudi Arabia and Iran. It highlights a highly centralised, personalised decision-making process led by the emir, which often bypasses formal diplomatic institutions. While Qatar has successfully mediated between Eritrea and Djibouti, its efforts in Darfur are characterised as a failure due to a lack of contextual understanding and political leverage. The document details Qatar's use of financial wealth, military alliances with the US and Turkey, and the Al Jazeera network as primary instruments of influence.

One year after the Paris Agreement's adoption, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) finds that national climate policies have made little progress. If NDCs are fully implemented, global warming by 2100 is estimated at 2.8°C, while current policies would lead to 3.6°C. A significant emissions gap remains for 2025 and 2030. The report highlights specific national trajectories, noting that most assessed NDCs are inadequate or medium in ambition, with particular concerns regarding the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, while noting positive renewable energy growth in India.

The paper analyzes the diversity of (I)NDCs across target types, sectoral coverage, and greenhouse gas scopes, finding that while economy-wide absolute targets facilitate easier accounting, only 18 (I)NDCs (covering 41% of global emissions) currently employ them.

The ATT Monitor 2016 report reviews the first year of the Arms Trade Treaty as international law, noting a rise in membership to 82 States Parties as of June 1, 2016. It highlights a significant gap between procedural progress and substantive compliance, particularly regarding arms transfers to conflict zones like Yemen. The report provides a detailed analysis of African states' engagement, the development of a 'Risk Watch' tool to monitor weapon misuse, and an evaluation of the first tranche of Initial and Annual Transfer Reports, noting inconsistent reporting rates and a lack of transparency in several regions.

The policy brief argues that G20 countries should accelerate the phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by adopting a clear timetable, increasing transparency through peer reviews, and ensuring targeted support for the poor. It highlights the success of voluntary peer review processes in APEC and the G20, and notes a growing international consensus—including commitments from G-7 countries to phase out such subsidies by 2025—to align fiscal policies with climate objectives.

The document analyzes how two climate scenarios, Radical Emissions Reduction (RER) and High-end Climate Change (HCC), impact four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the stability of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Under RER, the transition to meet Paris Agreement targets may trigger food-versus-fuel conflicts, gender-based violence from biofuel-driven displacement, and geopolitical instability in oil-dependent states. Conversely, the HCC scenario suggests that climate-driven agricultural failure and water scarcity would exacerbate armed conflicts, global inequality, and the influence of extremist groups. The authors argue that the short-term geopolitical costs of rapid climate action must be integrated into national policy formulation to manage risks effectively.

The report argues that carbon pricing is a critical tool for meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping global temperatures well below 2°C. It introduces 'Carbon Pricing Bands' to categorize price levels by their economic impact—ranging from 'Introductory' (up to $20) to 'Targeted' (above $80)—and presents four potential future trajectories: a 'Success Trajectory' leading to a low-carbon world, and three failure scenarios ('Sailing into the Cliff', 'Stormy Waters', and 'Running Aground') where temperatures rise by 3°C to 4°C due to inadequate or chaotic pricing policies. The update highlights post-COP21 developments, including the commitment of 90 nations to use market mechanisms and specific national actions in China, India, and Canada.

The document examines the tension between treating fossil fuel suppliers as polluters and recognizing extraction as a sovereign right for development. It argues that meeting Paris Agreement targets requires leaving a majority of proven reserves in the ground, which would disproportionately impact lower-income regions through the loss of significant resource rents.

The report examines the 'water-energy nexus,' where water scarcity threatens energy production and energy costs impact water provision. It analyzes three case studies: the Middle East and North Africa's reliance on energy-intensive desalination, China's coal-fired power plants facing high water stress, and the United States' water-intensive hydraulic fracturing for shale gas. The document argues that companies can mitigate these risks by shifting from expanding supply to reducing demand, scaling alternative water sources like reclaimed wastewater and brackish water, and adopting clean energy resources such as solar and wind.

The report argues that the global infrastructure gap persists despite available capital due to a mismatch between investment instruments and project phases. It proposes shifting from bank loans to bond financing during operation phases, mitigating construction risk through guarantees and first-loss protection, and leveraging Islamic finance. The authors advocate for long-term master plans to resolve fiscal mismatches between federal and local governments, reforming procurement to prioritize life-cycle value over the lowest bid, and using fiscal incentives like green accelerated depreciation to encourage sustainable assets.

The paper argues that the legal distinction between migrant smuggling (facilitating illegal movement for profit) and human trafficking (exploitation) is increasingly blurred in practice, as smugglers often transition into traffickers. It contends that restrictive border controls do not stop migration but instead make smuggling the 'new normal,' increasing migrant vulnerability and profitability for criminal networks. The authors highlight that most irregular migrants successfully reach their destinations despite high risks, and that state efforts to 'demonize' smugglers often serve as political cover for the failure of the global asylum regime.

The report posits that Iran's nuclear power program is economically unviable and creates security ambiguities that could be resolved by shifting toward energy efficiency and renewables. It suggests that international cooperation in these sectors would align with Iran's economic interests, reduce the domestic case for nuclear power, and potentially halt a regional nuclear arms race. The author highlights Iran's significant wind and solar potential and compares this transition to experiences in Argentina and Brazil.

The document analyzes proposed US heavy-duty vehicle standards for model years 2018–2029, noting they would reduce oil consumption by 550,000 barrels per day by 2035 and avoid 1 billion metric tons of emissions. However, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) argues that a 40 percent reduction in fuel consumption is achievable by 2025, which would save an additional 200,000 barrels of oil per day and avoid 40 million metric tons of annual emissions compared to the government's 36 percent target for 2027.

The report finds that the vast majority of UK universities have links to military interests, with funding provided by the UK government, arms companies, and overseas organisations. While public military R&D spending as a percentage of total R&D has fallen since the Cold War, the author warns of recent trends toward increasing military-university collaborations and a rise in government military R&D spending between 2011 and 2012.

The document examines the tension between two pre-eminent principles of transboundary aquifer governance: the requirement to reduce "significant harm" to other portions of the aquifer and the goal of ensuring "reasonable and equitable" water use. The author suggests that the former should take priority and utilizes case studies of the al-Disi and Ogallala aquifers to explore the constraints and issues associated with balancing these principles.

The document argues that removing fossil-fuel subsidies is a critical lever for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and unlocking low-carbon energy pathways. It highlights that global emissions could decrease by 6% to 13% by 2050 through the phase-out of consumer subsidies, though these figures are likely underestimates as they exclude producer subsidies. The paper outlines how countries can incorporate FFSR into their INDCs, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), and the 2015 UNFCCC agreement. It emphasizes that to maximize emission reductions, subsidy removal must be coupled with binding emission caps in OECD countries to prevent 'carbon leakage' and simultaneous government investment in low-carbon energy and transport infrastructure to enable fuel switching.

The document examines the strategic realignment in the Eastern Mediterranean involving the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Israel, and Turkey. It argues that while the RoC, Israel, and Greece have formed a new security bloc to balance Turkey's naval ambitions, a structural need to contain Iranian influence is driving a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey. This shift is further incentivized by commercial imperatives, as the discovery of Egypt's Zohr gas field makes Turkey a more viable export market for Israeli natural gas. The author contends that these twin dynamics—the Turkey-Israel rapprochement and the RoC-Israel-Greece security formation—provide a new balance of incentives and guarantees that could facilitate a resolution to the Cyprus conflict.

Return migration to Pakistan is highly diverse, ranging from the lifestyle-driven back-and-forth mobility of naturalized citizens from Europe to the forced return of irregular migrants via deportations and assisted voluntary return programmes. While the country relies heavily on remittances—receiving 18.4 billion USD in financial year 2014—returnees often face a context of instability, poor living conditions, and a lack of trust in state institutions due to corruption and nepotism. The Pakistani government's approach to return migration has primarily focused on short-term laborers from the Middle East and the promotion of formal remittance channels, leaving the needs of other diaspora groups largely unaddressed and the country's broader socioeconomic potential untapped.

The report estimates that a transition to a low-carbon economy could put nearly $25 trillion of fossil fuel asset value at risk, with approximately 80% of this risk borne by governments rather than private investors. The analysis highlights that oil represents the majority of value at risk (close to 75%), while coal offers the highest emissions reduction potential with relatively low stranding risk (12%). The document argues that the net economic impact depends heavily on policy: a purely tax-based approach to reducing oil demand could cost the global economy $3 trillion, whereas an innovation-led transition could yield a net benefit of $7 trillion. It recommends prioritizing the phase-out of coal and utilizing financial mechanisms to lower the cost of renewable energy in emerging markets.

The report examines the 'peace potential' of oil and gas resources, analyzing how joint development, revenue sharing, and infrastructure projects like pipelines can either mitigate or fuel conflict. It contrasts successful cooperation, such as the Saudi-Kuwaiti Partitioned Neutral Zone and Turkey-Iraqi Kurdish relations, with failures in the Caucasus and disputes in the South China Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. The study also addresses the role of international environmental law and the climate impact of transitioning from coal to natural gas.